APCEDI ALERT 10F #13, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU; THREATENS SOUTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3 Cyclone Percy has caused widespread, heavy property damage on both Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70) with the majority of houses on both islands being damaged, many severely. APCEDI continues to be in contact with Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they were able to re-establish communication with Pukapuka about 5:00 PM local time. While the damage is widespread, there are no injuries, and everyone is reported safe and well.

In Nassau the 70 residents were evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact continues with the island, and they are likewise reporting widespread damage but everyone is safe and well.

It is a great testament to the Cook Islands and their preparedness systems that they have weathered 4 cyclones in as many weeks without 1 serious injury or casualty.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules had landed at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and they were discussing the priorities for the plane's next mission.

Percy has now begun its long anticipated turn and is moving southeast at 8-10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a more southerly turn sometime in the next 12 hours. Now that the turn has begun, the situation for Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka is improved. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be continue on alert. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 75 miles eastsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 65 miles southsouthwest of Nassau. Percy has peaked in intensity, but is still a major Category 3 strength Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. FMS, JTWC and NOAA are all forecasting a gradual weakening trend as it moved south some.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, but Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command is reporting that a DC-130 plane from Honolulu will overfly the island tomorrow morning and undertake a food and medical drop. So APCEDI will report on the outcome of this trip. Hopefully the brave Swain Islanders will be found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that a boat will leave for Fakaofo tomorrow with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 28/0638 UTC 2005 UTC.
Correction to location...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0 DEGREES SOUTH 165.4 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 74 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 152 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT AT 280600 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 117 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 123 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 281200 UTC AND ABOUT 148 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 114 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281800 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU, SUWARROW AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS. WINDS OVER PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU EASING GRADUALLY. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands ON TC PERCY will be issued at 280900 UTC or earlier.
______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0336 UTC 2005 UTC.
Correction to next issue time...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 165.4W OR ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 280300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS AND TURNING FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. MODERATE SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280900 UTC or earlier.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #12, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES TO BATTER PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS; SOUTHERN COOKS PUT ON ALERT

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is making a near direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). APCEDI has again contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they have lost contact with Pukapuka since 8:00 AM local time. All 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact was established with Nassau at 1:20 PM local time, and that at that time winds had died down to 15 kts. It is unclear whether this was because of the passage of the eye feature. Very heavy rain and hurricane force winds had done much damage to roofs on Nassau's houses according to the report.

Given the near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and Nassau, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands. If communications are not restored with Pukapuka within a reasonable time later today after the storm's passage, then an aircraft should be sent immediately to assess the situation.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that a Royal New Zealand Airforce Plane was due to land at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and this might be used to assess damage in the Northern Cooks.

Percy continues to move eastsoutheast at 10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a southern turn sometime in the next 12 hours. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 25 miles southsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 30 miles southwest of Nassau. Percy is still a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected south or westerly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, and APCEDI would urge the US Government to undertake a flyover immediately or contact the New Zealand Government to do this in their course of dealing with Tokelau and Northern Cooks. Swains has been out of contact for over a week, and it is quite likely that the people there may need assistance as regular food drops have not been able to occur for several weeks.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

SOUTHERN COOKS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/2350 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 165.7 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. PERCY IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY BY 280900 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 70 TO 80 KNOTS GUSTING 110 KNOTS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM PUKAPUKA AND
NASSAU. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING
VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 280300 UTC or earlier.
_______

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0008 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 165.7W OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 272200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS AND WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND: SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY FRESHENING TODAY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM A FEW SHOWERS, CLOUD INCREASING TOMORROW. MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHENING TOMORROW. FINE APART FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST SWELL.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280300 UTC or earlier.
_____

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #11, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY POUNDS PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is threatening to make a direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). The centre of the storm is just to the west of Pukupuka as this report is being written.

APCEDI has contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that all 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the cyclone shelter. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

Should a direct or near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and possibly Nassau occur, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands.

Percy continues to move east at 5-10 kt. It was forecast to make a southern turn last night, but this has still not materialised, and in fact the course last night was even more toward the east than yesterday's eastsoutheast movement. However, it has started to slow down, which could indicate a turn more toward the south shortly. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is currently moving east at 10 kt and is maintaining its current strength. It is about 25 miles west of Pukapuka. Percy is now a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

SAMOA
ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/1754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0 DEGREES SOUTH 166.8 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 271500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 40 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA BY 280000 UTC 0R 100 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281500 UTC .

FOR PUKAPUKA:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS GUSTING 70 KNOTS. WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS, WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE 65 TO 75 KNOTS GUSTING 100 KNOTS, IF CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS
CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 DURING TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 272100 UTC or earlier.
___

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #10, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Cyclone Percy continues to head eastsoutheast and is starting to bear down on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). Percy is forecast to make a southern turn imminently, but unless this occurs in the next 4-6 hours, both islands could get a near direct hit by this major Category 4 storm. Therefore, the timing of the southern turn is now critical for both islands. Authorities on both islands should immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion, and authorities on the other islands in the Northern Cooks should be ready to do the same tomorrow if required.

APCEDI has contacted Deputy Commissioner Maara Tetava in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. They are in contact with both Pukapuka and Nassau. He says that Emergency Centres have been activated on all Northern Cook Islands. He said that all low-lying areas of Pukapuka have been evacuated. Winds are starting to pick up there and are now at 15-20 kt sustained. The storm surge at high tide at 9:00 PM this evening has come in 100-150 metres. Winds and tides at Nassau are also picking up, but not as great as on Pukapuka. Authorities on both islands will be on alert all night as the situation develops.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 11-12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 140 miles (225 km) west of Pukapuka. Percy is now approaching Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to continue to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours.

Most forecasts and models show a southerly turn in the next 4-12 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Southern Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Earlier in the day the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. Yesterday, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH IS NOW CANCELLED FOR ALL OF SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

---
NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0859 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1 DEGREES SOUTH 168.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271800 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE, 45 TO 50 KNOTS GUSTING 65 KNOTS, WITHIN 6 HOURS IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT TRACK. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS RISING TO HIGH OR VERY HIGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 271200 UTC or earlier.
_______

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270802 COR
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-271100-

CORRECT TO INCLUDE PM

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
902 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005...CORRECTION

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS

A GALE WARNING MEANS GALE FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 54 MPH IS OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 SOUTH 168.8 WEST OR 220 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 167.6 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AT 1 PM SST SUNDAY. AT 1 AM SST MONDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH 167.2 WEST OR 130 NM EAST TO NORTHEAST OF MANU'A. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 155 MPH. RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION AT 270000Z OR 1 PM SST SATURDAY SHOWS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 500 MB...AND WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN ALOFT EAST OF HURRICANE PERCY...IT CONCERNS THE IMPACT AND MOVEMENT OF HURRICANE PERCY IN THE VICINITY OF TUTUILA AND MANU'A ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN SECURE SHELTERS.

RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO A LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATION OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALL SHORES OF SWAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE AFFECTED SHORELINES UNTIL THE SURF SUBSIDES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS DIMINISHING TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS DIMINISHING NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
THERE IS CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVER SWAINS FROM HURRICANE PERCY IN THE PAST HOURS. SHOWERY BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH PERCY ARE MOVING ACROSS MANU'A ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SUNDAY.

$$
CMB
_____

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY TAKES AIM ON NORTHERN COOKS; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON TOKELAU; SWAIN'S ISLAND ISOLATED

Cyclone Percy is now moving away from Swain's Island (population 5-20) toward the Northern Cooks after causing widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Cyclone Percy is now moving eastsoutheast at 12 kt and is intensifying. It is about 100 miles (160 km) east of Swain's Island and 200 miles (320 km) west of Pukapuka in the Northern Cooks. Percy is still a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is likely to strengthen to a Category 4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue southeast toward the Northern Cooks but is forecast to make a southerly turn in the next 12-36 hours, which would take the storm between Niue and the Cooks, similar to Olaf's path, as a Category 4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants.

Authorities in the Northern Cooks, should be on alert as a delay in the southerly turn could result in increased threat to Pukapuka and other westernmost islands. Authorities on Pukapuka should start to ready preparedness measures in line with the level of the approaching storm.

Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREVIOULSY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

---
NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/0304 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN
THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9 DEGREES SOUTH 169.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 270200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA BY 271200 UTC.

FOR PUKAPUKA:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 270600 UTC or earlier.
-------

TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2347 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO IN NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 169 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 262300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

This will be the final Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands. The next Bulletin will be the Routine Weather Bulletin to be issued at 270230 UTC.
______

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 270200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-270500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 PM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAINS ISLAND IS CANCELLED.
A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR 90 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND...AND ABOUT 210 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1PM SST SATURDAY. HURRICANE PERCY WAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 12.4 SOUTH 167.9 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 7 AM SST SUNDAY. AT 7 PM SST SUNDAY HURRICANE PERCY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 13.5 SOUTH 167.3 WEST OR 120 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA. HURRICANE PERCY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS.

ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA MA MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH SUNDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM SATURDAY.

$$
_____
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 11F #1, 2005: Tropical Depression 11F Forms in French Polynesia

Tropical Depression 11F has formed in French Polynesia between the southeast part of the Tuamotu Group and the northwest part of the Gambier Group. It is not expected to become a cyclone within the next 12-24 hours, but authorities in French Polynesia are beginning to issue advisory notes on the system. Authorities should keep any eye on this system as it may compound the problems resulting from several weeks of heavy rains across the islands this month.

ADVICE FROM THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F [998HPA] LOCATED NEAR 21S 139W AT 262100UTC BASED ON GOES 9 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SYSTEM POORLY ORGANISED WITH MAJOR CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LLCC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. SYSTEM MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. TD 11F REMAINS WEST OF A 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE WINDS ALOFT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT TREND OF DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

ADVICE FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES VIA TAHITIPRESSE

PREVISIONS ETABLIES PAR METEO FRANCE LE SAMEDI 26 FÉVRIER 2005 à 05H00 locales.

PREVISIONS PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLES JUSQU’A DIMANCHE SOIR :

ATTENTION:
1) L’ avis de phénomène exceptionnel numéro 4 concernant des fortes précipitations et des vents forts sur l’est et le sud-est Tuamotu et les Gambier est en cours.
2) Par ailleurs, une houle longue de Sud-ouest de 2m à 2m50 voire 3m intéresse la Société et le sud de l’archipel des Tuamotu. Elle provoque une montée des eaux dans les lagons exposés et de forts courants près des passes. Cette houle commencera à s’amortir en cours de journée.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER:
Un temps pluvieux avec des grains se maintient sur les régions de Pukapuka, Fakahina, Tatakoto, Reao, et de Tematangi, à Moruroa, Tureia jusqu’aux Gambier. Les précipitations sont localement de forte intensité et parfois orageux et devraient s’atténuer à partir de la nuit prochaine. Les averses et grains persisteront encore dimanche sur les régions de Reao, Moruroa et Gambier. Sur le Nord de l’archipel de Mataiva à Takaroa jusqu’à Napuka, le ciel est le plus souvent nuageux durant le deux jours avec des averses et grains isolés.. Ailleurs le ciel reste largement ensoleillé.

Vers les Gambier vent d’Est à Nord-est modéré, tournant dimanche au secteur Nord. De Hereheretue à Tematangi et Moruroa vent de Sud-est modéré, s’établissant dimanche au secteur Ouest à Nord-ouest. Ailleurs, vent de Nord à Nord-ouest modéré temporairement assez fort avec des rafales atteignant 70/90km/heure dans les zones perturbées, fléchissant dimanche 50/70Km/heure.

Mer agitée en général, localement forte dans les zones perturbées. Houle de secteur Nord 1m50 sur le nord et centre de l’archipel. Houle longue de Sud-ouest 2m à 2m50 voire 3m sur le sud de l’archipel.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BATTERS SWAINS ISLAND; CAUSES WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy is now pounding Swain's Island (population 7) after causing widespread property damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday.

Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports on the preliminary damage as follows:

Situation on Nukunonu
The height of the storm surge occurred at 8:00 PM local time corresponding with high tide. The storm surge resulted in at least 5 houses on Nukunonu being washed away (3 in Motuhaga and 2 in Fale) and damage to many other houses. Residents living in the immediate coastal area fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses during this time. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on Nokonunu is reported safe and well. Matiti School, the only school on Nukunonu has been large destroyed, but the hospital is alright. The bridge between Motuhaga and Fale is heavily eroded on the sides and covered with power and telecommunications lines and other debris. Vehicles can not go across but it can be walked across. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Fakaofo
There has been one serious injury to a man while trying to clear debris yesterday. This is a deep laceration to his leg. There is no doctor on the atoll, so authorities are evaluating the situation to try to get the man some medical help. The storm surge has washed away 2 houses and damaged many others. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls. Many boats have been washed onshore.

Situation on Atafu
Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, and communication has been irregular. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications and power are still down. The latest report confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Yesterday's Parliamentary Session had been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared. He has been keeping Wellington advised of the situation as it has developed.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Ben Sili, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications have been down with Swain's Island for some hours, and that they are trying to re-establish communication. He confirms that there is only about 7 people currently on the island. It can be expected that damage here is similar to that on Tokelau given the proximity of the storm.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 13 kt and is about 50 miles (85 km) northeast of Swain's Island. Percy has maintained overall strength overnight after some weakening yesterday. Percy is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm in the next 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will continue to batter Swain's Island with hurricane force winds for about 4-6 hours before pulling away. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy pulls away from Swain's Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/2025 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FAKAOFO.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [940 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 170 DECIMAL 8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AT 261800 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAKAOFO AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU BY 270000 UTC.

FOR FAKAOFO:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU AND NUKUNONU :
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 262330 UTC OR EARLIER.

---

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 262000
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-262300-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 AM SST SAT FEB 26 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6 SOUTH 170.4 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 8 AM SST SATURDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.2 SOUTH 169.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 180 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF MANUA AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY AND WILL BE NEAR 12.5 SOUTH 168.0 WEST OR 130 NM NORTHEAST OF MANUA AT 1 AM SUNDAY AND BE NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 167.7 WEST OR 90 NM EAST OF MANUA AT 1 PM SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY AFTER AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY...HAS STAYED MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME INTENSITY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTER

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TODAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 50 TO 75 MPH LATER TODAY. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH TONIGHT AND TO 35 TO 55 MPH SUNDAY..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING TODAY IN SWAINS ISLAND.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 PM SATURDAY.

$$
_____
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #7, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON SWAINS ISLAND; STORM SURGE BATTERS TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's atolls, Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) this afternoon and evening causing widespread property damage to houses and structures along the immediate coast. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the high storm surge at 8:00 PM local time corresponded with a high tide, and this resulted in at least 3 houses on Nukunonu and 2 on Fakaofo being washed away. Residents living in the immediate coastal area have fled inland or were evacuated to stronger houses. During the evacuation, 2 people, one mother and a young man were caught by waves and washed out, but both were rescued. Everyone on all three atolls are still reported safe and well. Many trees, electrical lines and telephone lines are down and debris is widespread across all three atolls.

Communications with Atafu are still limited to satellite telephone, but authorities report that the storm is dying down this evening. Earlier reports from Atafu noted that the storm surge had been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. The latest report this evening confirms that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone continues safe and well.

Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported earlier today to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy is now moving southeast at 12 kt and is about 70 miles (115 km) westsouthwest of Nukunonu . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now dropped the Storms Warnings for Nukunonu and Fakaofo but maintains a Gale Warning for all Tokelau. Percy has showed some signs of weakening in the last 3 hours, but is still a strong Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA forecasts is still likely to strengthen to a Category 3/4 storm by the time it passes over Swains Island in 6-12 hours. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course will spare all three atolls from a direct hit, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Damaging gale-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population less than 40) is next in line, and a Hurricane Warning has been raised there. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. On the current forecast course Swains Island will receive a direct or near direct hit, and the latest NOAA forecast calls for very destructive winds and dangerous flooding to begin later tonight into tomorrow morning. This is now a very dangerous situation for Swains Island. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Once Percy moves across Tokelau and Swains Island, it is forecast to pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA.
FLOOD ADVISORY : Flood advisory is now enforced for low lying areas that vulnerable to floods due to heavy rain.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND.
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0831 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO IS NOW CANCELLED.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TOKELAU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [955 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8 DEGREES SOUTH 172.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 68 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260600 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AND 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO BY 261200 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261800 UTC.

FOR TOKELAU:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS AND UP TO 65 KNOTS ABOUT FAKAOFO AND NUKUNONU. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 261230 UTC OR EARLIER.

____

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-261100-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 06
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9 SOUTH 172.6 WEST OR 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AND ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 8 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 MILES AN HOUR IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. AT THIS MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 168.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 1 AM SST SUNDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 45 MPH TONIGHT...WITH A RAPID INCREASE TO 55 TO 75 MPH OVERNIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM SATURDAY.

$$
---
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #6, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEGINS TO BATTER TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's westernmost Atafu Atoll (population 500-600). Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the storm surge has been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. Communication is being maintained by satellite phone. The latest report last hour said that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone was safe and well. A community cyclone shelter had been established, but most people were riding out the storm in their homes which are largely cyclone-proof.

Mr Vitale noted that the sea around Nukunonu (population 400-450) was very rough and the storm surge was already building. Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward just to the southwest of Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 90 miles (145 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 120 miles (195 km) west of Nukunonu moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

All atolls are now getting heavy squalls and major storm surge, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the afternoon and evening from west to east. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 65-85 miles south of Atafu and 30-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm moves across Tokelau and Swains Island after which it looks like it will pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0221 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 173.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260000 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU BY 260900 UTC AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261500 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT WINDS INCREASING DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260530 UTC OR EARLIER.
----

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 04
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
3 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY (950 MB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2 SOUTH 173.8 WEST OR 210NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 360 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 1 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 169.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM FRIDAY.

$$
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #5, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES BEARING DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 100 miles (160 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 135 miles (220 km) west of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 15 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, who is currently on the Nukunono Atoll has reported that the islands are now prepared.

All atolls have already started to get squalls, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the morning and afternoon. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 60-80 miles south of Atafu and 40-60 miles south of Nukunono and 50-70 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/2319 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [960 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 174.2 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 252300 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONO BY 260600 UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NUKUNONU AT 261200 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONU AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260230 UTC OR EARLIER.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

WTZS81 NSTU 252300
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260200-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 03
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
12 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA...

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.9 SOUTH 174.9 WEST OR 260 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 11 AM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 954 MB WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 171.8 WEST OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1 PM SST SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 140 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE BOARDING UP HOUSES AND PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS FOR SWAINS ISLAND. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT..

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM FRIDAY.

$$
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #4, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON TOKELAU AND SWAINS ISLAND, AMERICAN SAMOA

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward toward Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500), Nukunonu (population 400) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service has now issued a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but could strengthen into a Category 2/3 by the time in passes over Tokelau in 12-24 hours.

Percy is now 175 miles (485 km) west of Atafu and 210 miles (340 km) West of Nukunono moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 2/3 Cyclone. Atafu has already started to get squalls and conditions will deteriorate as throughout the morning. On its current course, Percy will pass 50-70 miles south of Atafu sparing a direct hit but still capable of causing damaging gales. A direct or near direct hits by Percy is still possible for Tokelau's two other atolls Nukunono and Fakaofo later today.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy has formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification is still possible in the next 12-24 hours as the storm approaches Tokelau and American Samoa after which it looks like it will take aim on the Cooks.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SAMOA WATERS

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

---
TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for the Tokelau Islands on TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/1715 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

Tropical Cyclone PERCY [970HPA] centre was located near 8.9 South 175.5 West or about 175 miles west of Atafu or about 210 miles west of Nukunono at 251700 UTC. Cyclone is moving east-southeast at 12 knots and intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds close to the centre estimated at 65 knots increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre
in sectors from northwest through north to east to south and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

On its projected track, the cyclone is expected to lie about 74 miles south-southwest of Atafu or about 79 miles west-southwest of Nukunono by 260500 UTC and about 50 miles south-southwest of Atafu or 65 miles south-southeast of Nukunono at 261700 UTC.

For Nukunono and Fakaofo :
Expect winds increasing to destructive storm force with average speeds of 50 to 60 knots with momentary gusts from 70 to 85 knots from this evening. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High to very high seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

For Atafu :
Damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots with momentary gusts from 50 to 65 knots from later this morning. Frequent heavy rain with squally thunderstorms. High seas. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Tokelau Islands will be issued around 252000 UTC.
-----

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

HURRICANE WARNING
Swains Island (American Samoa)

ASZ001>003-252000- BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY...LOCAL STATEMENT 01
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
6 AM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF
AMERICAN SAMOA.

WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND...

...A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA.. A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WAS LOCATED AT 8.8 SOUTH 175.6 WEST OR 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 420 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 4 AM SST (SAMOA STANDARD TIME) FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL BE NEAR10.2 SOUTH 173.5 WEST OR 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND AT 1:00 AM SATURDAY AND AT 11.3 SOUTH 171.2 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF SWAINS AT 1:00 PM SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 140 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. EVACUATION OF COASTAL ALONG NORTH SHORES IS RECOMMENDED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY LIKE TAPING WINDOWS...BOARDING UP HOUSES AND
PUTTING UP STORM SHUTTERS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY..

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 35 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT WITH WIND RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM FRIDAY.

AKAPO
___

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org