AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Friday, November 24, 2006

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Yani #4-2007: Cyclone Yani slowly moves southward through open waters west of Vanuatu.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Yani that is moving slowly southward in the open waters of the Coral Sea west of Vanuatu.

Cyclone Yani is currently centred 400 km northwest of Espirito Santo Island, Vanuatu or 360 km southeast of Rennell/Bellona, Solomons. Yani is currently at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is moving very slowly southward at 4 kts with a forecast shift in direction to the southwest, but continued slow southerly meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours. Satellites photos and data are indicating that Yani may be peaking in intensity with a slow weakening trend possibly beginning later today or tomorrow.

On its current slow southeasterly track, no land areas are immediately threatened, and Yani is continuing to move through the open sea. Nonetheless, early season storms are notoriously unpredictable, and current model guidance for Yani while improving is still somewhat divergent in these weak steering conditions. Therefore, all interests in Makira, Rennell and Bellona, Northern and Central Vanuatu and Nouvelle Caledonie (New Caledonia)should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise. Seas in the area are now very rough and local small boating interests should stay in port until advised.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near 13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle.

Organisation steady past 6 hours. Ragged cloud-filled eye still clearly evident on EIR imagery. Outflow good to south and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with W surround yielding DT5.0. MET and and PAT at 4.5. Final T based on DT thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent region. Shear gradually increasing over system. SST around 28-29C. A mid-level anticyclone to the east with an associated ridge extending southwest is expected to steer Yani towards the south-southwest. This will bring the cyclone into a region of stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a
south-southwest track with gradual intensification only in the short term.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt close to centre.
24hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.2S 162.4E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.1S 162.0E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt close to centre.
48hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.3S 161.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 60kt close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 240200 UTC.
____________________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Yani as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Yani (02P/04F)#3-2007: Cyclone Yani meanders slowly southward into open waters.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Yani that formed yesterday south of Makira and east of Rennell and Bellona.

The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service's Cyclone Website is also now up and running and issuing guidance.

Cyclone Yani is currently centred 200 km south of Makira or 220 km southeast of Rennell/Bellona. It is nearing Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is moving very slowly southward at 2-4 kts with a forecast shift in direction to the southwest, but continued slow southerly meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours along with slow strengthening.

On its current slow southeasterly track, no land areas are immediately threatened, and the storm is moving into the open sea. Nonetheless, early season storms are notoriously unpredictable, and current model guidance for Yani has been all over the place, providing little useful forward prognosis. Therefore, all interests in Makira, Guadalcanal, Rennell and Bellona should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise. Seas in the area are now very rough and local small boating interests should stay in port until advised. All interests in Northern and Central Vanuatu and Nouvelle Caledonie (New Caledonia) should also monitor this storm.


From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 22/2013 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [985hPa] centre was located near 12.9S 162.8E at 221800 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but expected to turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwest semicircle.

Organisation steadily increasing though appearing sheared. Primary band still wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.85 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T based on DT thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani expected to move west under strong mid level ridge to east and south. Global models generally agree on a westward track with gradual intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 230600UTC near 12.8S 162.4E mov W at 02kt with 55kt close to centre.
24hrs valid 231800UTC near 12.9S 161.8E mov W at 02kt with 60kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 161.0E mov WSW at 03kt with 65kt close to centre.
48hrs valid 241800UTC near 13.7S 159.9E mov WSW at 04kt with 70kt close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 230200 UTC.
____________________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Yani as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Yani (02P/04F)#2-2007: Cyclone Yani forms South of Makira in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Yani that formed today from Tropical Depression 02P (04F), which has been slowly strengthening and meandering south of Makira.

Cyclone Yani is currently centred 150 km southeast of Makira or 200 km east of Bellona. It is at Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is moving very slowly southeast at 2-4 kts with a forecast shift in direction to the south and southwest, but continued slow meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours along with slow strengthening.

On its current slow southeasterly track, no land areas are immediately threatened, and the storm is still small. However, all interests in Makira, Guadalcanal, Rennell and Bellona should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise. Seas in the area are becoming rough and local boating interests should stay advised. All interests in Northern Vanuatu should also monitor this storm.

Early season storms are notoriously unpredictable, and current model guidance for Yani has been all over the place, providing little useful forward prognosis.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 22/0214 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [995hPa] centre was located near 12.3S 162.5E at 220000 UTC moving southeast about 04 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly around llcc. Convection increased spatially and tops have begun cooling again after a brief warming. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.6 on log10 spiral thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear. SST around 28-29C. Global models struggling with Yani. Obtaining a sensible consensus impossible. System expected to move southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime in the next 24 hours.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 221200UTC near 13.2S 162.8E mov SSE at 04kt with 40kt close to centre.
24hrs valid 230000UTC near 14.5S 162.5E mov SSW at 04kt with 45kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 231200UTC near 14.3S 161.8E mov SW at 05kt with 50kt close to centre.
48hrs valid 240000UTC near 14.8S 161.0E mov SW at 05kt with 55kt close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 220800 UTC.
____________________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Yani as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SI 02P (04F) #1-2007: Tropical Depression 02P: Cyclone forming South of Makira in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have started issuing guidance on Tropical Depression 02P that has been strengthening and meandering south of Makira.

Unnamed Tropical Depression 02P (04F) is currently centred 150 km southeast of Makira or 200 km east of Bellona. It is moving very slowly southeast with a forecast shift to the south and southwest, but continued slow meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours and slowly strengthen.

At this point no land areas are immediately threatened, and the storm is still small. However, all interests in Makira, Guadalcanal, Rennell and Bellona should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise. Seas in the area are becoming rough and local boating interests should stay advised. All interests in Northern Vanuatu should also monitor this storm.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC.

Corrected version..Dvorak included.
Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours.

Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa ridge axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around
220200 UTC.
____________________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Tropical Depression 02P (04F) as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

 
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