APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #3, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 3, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 23 February 2004, Sydney 18:00 EDT

The cyclonic system has been formally named Ivy as it continues to slowly intensify about 250 nm East of Maewo Island, Vanuatu. It is slowly moving to the WNW at 5 knots. The latest satellite photos show a better defined storm that is nearing Category 1 Cyclone strength.

The continuing slow westward drift places much of Vanuatu at risk as the cyclone is getting better organised. Depending on the timing and rate of decurvature the storm could directly hit anywhere from Maewo to Efate in the next 24-48 hours. It is likely that it would be a Category 2 Cyclone by this time under a normal pattern of intensification. However, rapid growth, which often characterised Pacific cyclones, is possible. This would result in more extensive damage.

Authorities in Vanuatu from Maewo to Efate (including Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands and Efate including all small islands in these areas) should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely and be prepared to immediate action if needed. Feeder bands have spread rain across much of the area today. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding. It is possible that conditions in Vanuatu could begin to deteriorate along the cyclone’s path as early as around noon time tomorrow unless the storm stalls.

Authorities in the Banks and Torres should also keep alert as a slight deviation to the north could also cause problems for them.

Concerns in New Caledonia should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. It looks like Fiji will be spared this time unless there is an unexpected direction change.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator