APCEDI ALERT 05F #1, 2005: Tropical Depression Deepening West of Tuvalu

Tropical Depression O5F, located about 1000 kms west of Funafuti, Tuvalu is deepening and moving slowly southwest. All concerns in the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Vanuatu, Tuvalu and Fiji (especially Rotuma) should keep an eye on this depression as the Fiji Meteorological Service has upgraded its potential for forming a cyclone to moderate.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 04/0848 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000HPA] NEAR TO 9.5S 175.3E AT 040600UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON GOES9 IR ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITHIN 180 MILES. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANISED SINCE THE LAST 24 HOURS AND CONVECTION HAS MUSHROOMED CLOSE TO THE LLCC. BANDING FEATURE ALSO TRYING TO BECOME ORGANISED AND SUGGESTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 05F IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN 250HPA OUTLFLOW IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. 250HPA PROGNOSIS INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY LOCATDE JUST NORTH OF 05F, IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF 05F. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DRIFTING 05F SOUTHWEST. ECMWF SUGGESTS POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

APCEDI wil continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/