APCEDI Alert SP/FJ 05P Daman #7-2008: Cyclone Daman Peaks in Intensity and Sideswipes Vanua Levu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Daman that is currently moving offshore along the north coast of Vanua Levu.

The centre of Cyclone Daman is located near about 110 kilometres north of Labasa at 9PM this evening Fiji time.

Daman is moving to the east at 15 km/hr, but is expected to shift to the southeast later tonight. This continues to shift Daman's track eastward. This is very fortunate for both Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as the main population centres on both islands now look to be spared the full effect of the storm.

The current forecast map shows Daman paralleling the north coast of Vanua Levu about 100 km out to sea. Daman is likely to shift to the southeast later tonight and into the morning, but the timing of the shift will be critical to the affect of the storm in Northeast Vanua Levu. The current forecast brings Daman straight over the small island of Cikobia off the northeast coast or Vanua Levu, and then has the storm passing just offshore of the Udu Peninsula in far northeast Vanua Levu, passing offshore of the Natewa Peninsula and Rabi Island, and then well off the eastern shore of Taveuni, Qamea, Laucala and Matagi Islands and into the Northern Lau Group.

Cyclone Daman has peaked in intensity during the day but remains at Category 3 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 4 on the Australia Scale. It will likely maintain this strength as it passes by Vanua Levu and the Lau Group where it wil begin to slowly lose strength.

Many low-lying areas around Labasa, northeast Vanua Levu, Buca Bay and the Natewa Peninsula have already been evacuated. Many of these areas are reporting very heavy rain and squalls, along with coastal flooding, but no major damage or injuries have been reported.

Special attention now turns to the small island of Cikobia, which lies off the northeast coast of Vanua Levu. Cikobia has historically been a "cyclone magnet", and suffered from hits or near direct hits of Cyclones Kina in 1993, Gavin in 1997 and Ami in 2003. As such, there a strong safe house there which serves as a hurricane shelter for the islands residents, and they have historically been well-prepared for cyclones although they often lose most of their crops and many traditional bush houses. Cikobia could well receive a direct hit later tonight and into tomorrow morning, so all preparations should be immediately rushed to finish.

Residents throughout Fiji need to continue listen to Government warnings and maintain preparation activities in effected areas in line with a Category 3 strength Cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale.

At Category 3 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, Daman is a very severe cyclone and very dangerous. Residents of Cikobia and northeast Vanua Levu, Taveuni and surrounding areas in the Northern Lau Group who are currently near or directly in the path need to be especially careful. Communities in and around where the eye of Daman could expect storm surge generally 3-5 metres above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Unsecured structures, structures made of bush material, caravans/mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 2 metres above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Resident and authorities in Tonga should closely watch this system as it works its way through the Lau Group. Residents and authorities in Wallis and Futuna should also keep any eye on the storm in case of any sudden direction change to the northeast.

ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LAU GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR KIA, THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF
VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.


FUTUNA

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR ALL FUTUNA WATERS


TONGA

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:57pm on Friday the 7th of December 2007

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS
OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LAU GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR KIA, THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF
VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP.

A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAN CENTRE 925HPA [CATEGORY 4] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 EAST OR ABOUT 110 KILOMETRES NORTH OF LABASA AT 10.45PM TONIGHT. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 180 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 260 KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KM/HR BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR CIKOBIA, NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 180 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 260 KM/HR OVERNIGHT.

FOR KIA, THE REST OF EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UPTO 110 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 160 KM/HR TOMORROW.

OVER THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP, WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OF 65 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR FROM LATER TOMORROW.

EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FLASH FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS, RIVERS AND STREAMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR ROTUMA.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.


The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN 30 MILES OF CYCLONE CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO 75 MILES WITH VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2AM TOMORROW MORNING.

___________________________________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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