APCEDI Alert SP/Tn 14F Lin #2-2009: Cyclone Lin Threatens Ha'apai and Tongatapu Groups

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Lin, a tropical cyclone that is moving across Tonga.

Cyclone Lin is currently located 65 nautical miles (120 kms) west-northwest of the Ha'apai Group and 100 nautical miles (185 kms) north of the Tongan capital, Nuku'alofa on Tongatapu. Lin is moving south at 8 knots and is expected to maintain a south to south east course through tomorrow.

Cyclone Lin is intensifying and will pose a significant threat to Ha'apai and Tongatapu Group throughout today and into tomorrow. Lin is currently forecasted to pass about 40 nautical miles west of the Ha'apai Group tonight into tomorrow as a Category 2 storm on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale. It is then forecast to pass about 30 nautical miles from Tongatapu and Nuku-alofa, the Tongan capital.

Category 2 equates to minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small craft may break moorings. Localised coastal and lowland flooding is also likely.

All interests in effected areas of the Ha'apai and Tongatapu should rush cyclone preparations to a finish, monitor local warnings and follow all Government advice.

CURRENT WARNINGS

TONGA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND TONGATAPU GROUPS AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.

FIJI

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE LAU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING DISCONTINUED

Tonga Warning from the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
LIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 04/1329 UTC 2009 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND TONGATAPU GROUPS AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LIN [980HPA] CAT 2 CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HA'APAI OR ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF NUKU'ALOFA AT 041200 UTC. CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 48 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAAPAI OR 50 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF NUKU'ALOFA AT 041800 UTC AND ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF NUKU'ALOFA OR ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF NOMUKA AT 042100 UTC. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR HA'APAI AND TONGATAPU GROUPS AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 55 TO 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE VAVA'U GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS EASING LATER TODAY. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR NIUAS:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS:
EXPECT WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 041630 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.