APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #4, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 4, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 23 February 2004, Sydney 23:00 EDT

Cyclone Ivy with its disorganised main area of convection has continued drifting WNW at about 5 knots. This intense area of main convection is being maintained, but the storm is still being inhibited from major growth by a number of factors. The continued northern component of Ivy’s drift combined with an intense shear factor is bringing the main area of convection to the northwest of the system.

This is bringing the main rain and wind area closer towards the Torres and Banks Islands in Northern Vanuatu and even moving it into the area near Anuta and Tikopia in the Solomon Islands. Thus this APCEDI Alert is being extended to cover the Torres and Banks Islands of Northern Vanuatu as well as Anuta and Tikopia in the eastern Santa Cruz Group of the Solomons. Intermittent light gale force winds and heavy rains are already bring reported in areas of the Banks Islands, Maewo and Pentecost in Vanuatu, and the satellite is showing similar weather moving into Tikopia.

The official JTWC track moves the system north to hit Vanuatu in the area of Pentecost and Ambrym and then over Malakula and then to the west of the group, but as the discussion above notes, this may likely soon be moved even farther north.

Given the fact that that Ivy is still weak and disorganised, heavy rains and gale-force winds will be intermittent and generally confined to recurring showers or waves. Damage to any areas should be minimal and limited to low-land tidal flooding, and flash-flooding in hill areas. Some crop damage may occur. The fact the storm is moving slowly could result in heavy localised rainfall which could also result in localised flooding of flood prone areas.

Authorities in Vanuatu from the Torres Islands to Efate (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands and Efate including all small islands in these areas) as well as Anuta and Tikopia in the Eastern Solomons should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely over night and be prepared to take immediate action if needed. Feeder bands with intermittent heavy rains continue across Vanuatu from Efate northward and increasingly across the Santa Cruz Group of the Solomons.

People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding. It is possible that conditions in Vanuatu (and possibly Anuta and Tikopia) could begin to deteriorate along the cyclone’s path as early as tomorrow morning Tuesday.

Concerns in New Caledonia and the rest of the Santa Cruz Group in the Solomons should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator