APCEDI ALERT 02F #3, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Slow Moving

Tropical Depression 02F has meandered around this afternoon and evening. It has been relocated slightly more north of earlier readings, although its centre is diffuse and not easy to locate. There is still a slight southerly component to movement. Here are the latest updates:


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 13/0919 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S, 172.0E AT 130800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LLCC ESTIMATED TO SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION DIMINISHED IN LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS, INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL VARIATION. OUTFLOW FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 02F CURRENTLY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE WITH SHEAR STILL PERSISTENT FROM THE EAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING STEERED NORTH OF WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY, THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HENCE, THE DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO UNDERGO FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK ANALYSIS CURRENTLY YIELDS 2.5. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM ARE
GENERALLY MOVING 02F SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

Intermittent squalls and heavy rains continue for Rotuma (Fiji), Anuta and Tikopia (Solomons Islands) and the Northeastern Islands of Vanuatu from Pentecost and Santo northwards. This type of weather is very common for this time of year.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/