APCEDI ALERT 05F #2, 2005: Tropical Depression Deepening West of Tuvalu

Tropical Depression O5F, located about 1000 kms west of Funafuti, Tuvalu continues to organise and is now moving slowly north-northwest. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has now issued Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21 for this system. All concerns in the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Vanuatu, Tuvalu and Fiji (especially Rotuma) should keep a very close eye on this developing tropical system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

WTPS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042051Z JAN 05//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 9.4S3 173.5E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041925Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5. THE SYSTEM ISMOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 174.9E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5 APPROXIMATELY 585 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 052100Z8.//


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/