APCEDI Alert SP/VN 10F Funa #1-2008: Cyclone Funa forms near Northern Vanuatu.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have begun to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Funa that has formed this evening near Northern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Funa is located near about 170 kilometres west of Cape Nahoi on the Northwest tip of Espiritu Santo at 08 PM this evening Fiji time.

Funa is moving to the east-northeast at 18.5 km/hr, and is expected to turn more east and southeast tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Funa moving over or just to the north of Cape Nahoi on Espiritu Santo and then across the Banks Islands before passing out into the Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji.Cyclone Funa is at minimal Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves over Northern Vanuatu but will likely stay at Tropical Storm strength which is good news for Vanuatu as this should result in minimal damage although some moderate localised damage is possible in exposed areas.

Cyclone Alerts and Gale Warnings have been issued for Northern Vanuatu and Watches for Central Vanuatu. On Funa's current track the islands of most concern include Espiritu Santo, the Banks and Torres Islands, Maewo and Ambae. All residents in these islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice to rush cyclone preparations to completion. All islands north of Efate should be on alert and monitor the situation. Interests in Temotu Province of the Solomons (including the Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia) should also keep a close watch on the movement of this storm. Rough seas will be experienced throughout the area.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A GALE WARNING AND CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR ESPIRITU SANTO, BANKS AND TORRES ISLANDS, MAEWO AND AMBAE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING AND CYCLONE WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF VANUATU NORTH OF EFATE.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

HIGH WIND WARNING AND MARINE ALERT FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMOTU PROVINCE INCLUDING ALL ISLANDS IN THE SANTA CRUZ GROUP AND ANUTA AND TIKOPIA.

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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Special Advisory - Vanuatu

Special Advisory Number TWO for Vanuatu on TC FUNA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/0836 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 14.4S 164.8E AT 160600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION PAST 12 HOURS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE COOLING MARKEDLY AS WELL. SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING TO EAST AND SOUTH. SHEAR [CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND STEERED EASTWARDS BY DEEP LAYER MEAN MONSOON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PAT=3.0, MET=2.5, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXCPECTED. HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 14.2S 167.0E MOV E 11KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 14.8S 169.3E MOV ESE 13KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 15.8S 171.2E MOV ESE 12KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.2S 172.4E MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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