APCEDI Alert SP/CI 10P Nisha #1-2010: Cyclone Nisha forms between Samoa and Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Nisha, a minimal tropical cyclone that has formed between Samoa and the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 232 nautical miles (430 kms) northwest of Rarotonga in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 15 knots and is expected to turn more easterly tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kts making it a weak tropical storm. It should slowly strengthen into tomorrow and may approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning has been raised for Palmerston Island in the Southern Cooks and and Cyclone Alert is in effect for the rest of the Cook Islands. Palmerston is one of the most remote of the Cook Islands with a population of about 50 people.

Citizens and interests in the Southern Cook Islands should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings. Citizens and interests in Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna and Niue should continue to be vigilant as the storm moves away.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

COOK ISLANDS:
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND
AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NIUE:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR LAND AREA IS NOW
CANCELLED BUT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS OF WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY
STRONG WIND ADVISORY
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Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/1251 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA 06F [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 164 DECIMAL 6 WEST AT 281200 UTC OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA. CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS THE SAME.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 280 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 28/1800 UTC AND ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR 150 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 29/0900 UTC.

IF THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS THIS TRACK, IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER PALMERSTON THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS LATER DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING OR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEABY.

FOR PALMERSTON AND THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PALMERSTON AND LATER DURING THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will
be issued at 281530 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system, although this will likely be the last APCEDI Alert for this minimal system as it passes into the Southern Ocean.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Nisha.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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