APCEDI ALERT 02F #5, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Weakens Northeast of Vanuatu

Tropical depression 02F has tracked southward this morning and has now entered a heavy shear environment, which is likely to dissipate the depression in the next 24 hours as it continues south into cooler waters. Therefore it is now unlikely that this will become the the season's first South Pacific cyclone. The system will continue to spread squally weather across Vanuatu. However, with the increased speed to the south, the weather should begin to clear in the north tonight and in the rest of Vanuatu tomorrow from north to south.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 13/2333 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S, 171.1E AT 132100 UTC MOVING SOUTHWARDS 1O KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

SYSTEM NOW APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED WITH LLCC EXPOSED AND LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEGREE SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 132100 UTC BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS T2.5/2.0/W0.5/25HRS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. 02F CURRENTLY LIES SOUTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE IN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONTMENT. CIMSS INDICATES STRONGER SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. 02F IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM ARE GENERALLY MOVING 02F SOUTHWARDS AND WEAKENING.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/