APCEDI ALERT 05F #3, 2005: Tropical Storm 08P (05F) forms West of Tuvalu; Takes Aim at Vanuatu

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its first warning on Tropical Storm 08P which has formed about 1000 kms west-southwest of Funafuti, Tuvalu. The system is now forecast to move southwest at 09 kts. On its current forecast the tropical storm will approach the Northern Islands of Vanuatu as a borderline category 1-2 cyclone in two days time. All concerns in the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Rotuma Island, Fiji and Northern and Central Vanuatu should monitor this tropical storm closely and be ready to take cyclone preparedness measures in the next few days should the storm threaten. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 173.5E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-WARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING POORLY ON THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK CONFIDENCE. TC 08P SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNINGSUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100 ). NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/