APCEDI Alert SP/VN 10F Funa #2-2008: Cyclone Funa Strengthens Over Northern Vanuatu.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continues to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Funa that is currently passing across Northern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Funa is located just off the west coast of Maewo and off the north coast of Ambae at 10 AM this morning Fiji time. Funa is moving to the east at 15 km/hr, and is expected to turn more southeast later today.

The current forecast map shows Funa passing over Maewo before exiting Vanuatu out into the Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji. Cyclone Funa is at borderline Tropical Storm/ Ctaegory 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves over Northern Vanuatu and exits into the open ocean.

Fortunately by the time Funa turns into major Cyclone it will have cleared Vanuatu and will only pose a major risk to maritime interests between Vanuatu and Fiji. Minimal damage to some moderate localised damage is possible for both Ambae and Maewo Islands and for Northern Pentecost Island especially in exposed coastal areas. Only minimal damage including a few trees and many branches down, and some minor crop damage was reported from Espiritu Santo as Funa crossed the island earlier this morning.

Cyclone Alerts and Gale Warnings continue for Northern Vanuatu and Watches for Central Vanuatu. On Funa's current track the islands of most concern include Maewo, Ambae and Northern Pentecost and any neighboring islets in and around these larger islands. All residents in these islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as the cyclone passes over. All islands north of Efate should be on alert and monitor the situation. Interests in Temotu Province of the Solomons (including the Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia) should also keep a close watch on the movement of this storm. Rough seas will be experienced throughout the area.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR ESPIRITU SANTO, BANKS ISLANDS, MAEWO, AMBAE AND PENTECOST.

A HIGH WIND WARNING AND CYCLONE WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF VANUATU NORTH OF EFATE.

MARITIME WARNING FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

HIGH WIND WARNING AND MARINE ALERT FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMOTU PROVINCE INCLUDING ALL ISLANDS IN THE SANTA CRUZ GROUP AND ANUTA AND TIKOPIA.

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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Special Advisory - Vanuatu

Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC FUNA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/2306 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.0S 167.1E AT 162200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, MICROWAVE AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 9 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. CENTRE NOW UNDER DEEP AND COOLING CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATIONS. EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVELS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.65 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL IN CMG, YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT=MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MOMENTARY GUSTS WILL BE A LOT HIGHER AND FREQUENT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 171000 UTC NEAR 15.3S 169.3E MOV E 11KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 172200 UTC NEAR 16.4S 170.5E MOV SE 8KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181000 UTC NEAR 17.8S 171.6E MOV SE 9KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 182200 UTC NEAR 19.1S 172.1E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170230 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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