APCEDI Alert SP/CI 10P Nisha #2-2010: Cyclone Nisha moves across Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Nisha, a minimal tropical cyclone that is moving across the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 85 nautical miles (158 kms) northwest of Rarotonga in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving east at 15 knots and should roughly keep that course over the next day. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kts making it a weak tropical storm. It should slowly start to weaken into tomorrow.

Citizens and interests in the Southern Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

COOK ISLANDS:
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE NISHA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/1246 UTC 2010 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [EX-TC NISHA] [997HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 110 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 291200 UTC. 06F IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS DECREASING FURTHER IN THE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, O6F IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE GALES OVER RAROTONGA,MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS DECREASING FURTHER. PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVYWEST TO NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL LIKELY.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 291530UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system, although this will likely be the last APCEDI Alert for this minimal system as it passes into the Southern Ocean.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Nisha.
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Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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