APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #1-2010: Cyclone Oli forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a tropical cyclone that has formed over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 40 nautical miles (75 kms) northwest of Suwarrow in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving east-southeast at 15 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kts making it a moderate tropical storm. It should strengthen into tomorrow and may approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning has been raised for Suwarrow Atoll in the Northern Cooks and and a Strong Wind Warning is in effect for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Suwarrow Atoll is a largely uninhabited National Park, Marine and Bird Reserve.

Citizens and interests in the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1331 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 163 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AT 011200 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTREPASSES CLOSE BY:

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. FURTHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 011600 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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