APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #2-2010: Cyclone Ului bears down on Rennell and Bellona in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that is currently approaching Rennell and Bellona in the Solomon Islands This is the second cyclonic storm to affect the South Pacific at this time along with Cyclone Tomas, which is approaching Fiji.

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 157 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Ului underwent rapid strengthening yesterday. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kts making Ului a strong Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to on a generally westerly course toward the Southern Solomon Islands and the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands provinces of Makira, Rennell/Bellona, Guadalcanal, Malaita and Central, and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Western, ISabel and Choiseul Provinces including the Shortland Islands.

This is a particularly dangerous situation for Rennell and Bellona as they will be closest to the centre as it passes to the south of the islands later today into tonight. Using current model forecasts, the centre of Ului should pass 80 kms south of Rennell this evening into tonight and early tomorrow morning. Residents in Rennell and Bellona should rush cyclone preparations to completion at this point and heed all Government warnings.

All residents of other affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Papua New Guinea's Louisiade Group and the rest of Alotau Province should also monitor the storm carefully as it continues to moves west tomorrow.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER NINE


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER NINE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 7:00 AM THIS MORNING 14TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL AND MALAITA PROVINCES WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR WESTERN, ISABEL AND CHOISEUL PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

AT 5:00 AM THIS MORING, TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY THREE) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENNELL ISLAND. CYCLONE ULUI IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 100 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) IS NOW INFORCE FOR RENNELL/BELLONA AND SOUTHERN MAKIRA PROVINCES.

EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS (48 TO 64 KNOTS) OVER RENNELL/BELLONA IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (ABOVE 64KNOTS) IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER TEMOTU, MALAITA, CENTRAL, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL INUNDATION (COASTAL FLOODING) OVER LOW COASTAL AREAS OVER RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA AND TEMOTU INCLUDING SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL AND RUSSELLS AND NORTHERN MALAITA ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH WITH HIGH SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MAKIRA, RENNELL/BELLONA GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL AND MALAITA PROVINCES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, CENTRAL, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND ADVICE, CALL - 933

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 1:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
DATE: 14TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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