APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #1-2010: Cyclone Rene forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 70 nautical miles (130 kms) southwest of Nassau Island and 90 nautical miles (170 kms) south-southwest of Pukapuka in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving east at 8 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kts making Rene a tropical storm. Cyclone Rene is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and may reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Rene to slowly turn southeast and then south over the next 24 hours.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning for Nassau (population 75) and Pukapuka Island (population 600). A Tropical Cyclone Alert has been raised for Suwarrow (population 1-2 caretakes)

All residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks, Samoa and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Northern Cooks should rush cyclone completion to a finish and follow all Government advice. Recent Cyclones Oli and Pat have caused beach erosion and high seas in many areas of the Cooks, so there could be significant cumulative effects.

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1106 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [995HPA][CAT 1] LOCATED NEAR 12 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 166 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND 90 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 110900 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RENE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFFECT NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE CENTRE PASSES NEARBY.

FOR NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING.VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR SUWARROW:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING LIKELY.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOKS:
FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIALL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111430 UTC OR EARLIER.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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