APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #2-2010: Cyclone Pat set to move into the Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone moving down into the Southern Cook Islands from the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 240 nautical miles (450 kms) north of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 9 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making it a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to strengthen into tomorrow into Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all of the Southern Cooks Islands.

The residents of the Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Southern Cooks should monitor this storm carefully and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Southern Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant. Although most models show Cyclone Pat eventually recurving toward the west away from French Polynesia, until this westerly turn occurs, citizens should not become complacent. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of French Polynesia, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0329 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [980 HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 090300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS FROM LATER TOMORROW.

FOR AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTATY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY FROM TOMORROW WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REACHING DAMAGING GALE FORCE OR STRONGER IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ROUGH SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090930 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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