APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #2-2010: Cyclone Oli Moving on Eastern Fringes of Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a tropical cyclone that is moving along the eastern fringes of the Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 235 nautical miles (435 kms) north of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 14 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kts making it a moderate tropical storm. It should strengthen into tomorrow and may approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert has been raised for the Southern Cooks and the Western Islands of French Polynesia.

Citizens and interests in the Southern Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.


Alert from The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE OLI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/0416 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI CENTRE [985HPA] WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 425 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 020400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 021600 UTC AND ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 030400 UTC.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, OLI MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 021030 UTC OR EARLIER.

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Alert from Meteo France

NUMERO 2
DU 01 FEVRIER 2010 A 16H30 HEURES LOCALES

Dépression tropicale modérée OLI

ARCHIPELS OU ILES CONCERNES :

Dans les prochaines 18 heures : Néant

Dans les prochaines 48 heures : Ouest Polynésie
Evolution prévue: La dépression tropicale modérée OLI s'intensifie progressivement en s'approchant des îles de la Société.

PREVISIONS POUR LES ILES MENACEES

1er groupe d'îles : les Iles Sous Le Vent
La trajectoire de la dépression tropicale modérée Oli la situerait vers 15.2 sud et 158.0 Ouest le mardi 02 février en matinée. Elle pourrait devenir Cyclone tropical en cours de la journée du 02 février 2010. Elle génère une amplification de la houle de Nord-ouest jusqu'à 4m mardi soir et 5/6m mercredi soir. Les vents commencent à se renforcer mercredi matin vers Bellinghausen et Mopelia en soirée sur le reste des îles sous le vent.

2ème groupe d'îles : Néant


Le prochain bulletin sera diffusé le
01 février 2010
A
23h45 locale au plus tard

Renseignements météo: au 36.70.08 ou sur le site : http://www.meteo.pf


BULLETIN DE SUIVI N°2
DU LUNDI 1ER FEVRIER A 15H00 LOCALES.

Phénomènes météorologiques : VENTS FORTS.

Iles concernées :
Nord-ouest Tuamotu.

Situation météorologique :
Un minimum dépressionnaire situé sur le Nord-ouest Tuamotu génère un temps perturbé sur la région.

Prévisions :
Des grains à caractère orageux sont attendus de Ahe-Manihi-Takaroa jusqu'à Makemo avec des vents moyens de 60km/h et des rafales pouvant dépasser les 110km/h.

Evolution à plus de 24 heures:
Mardi, le temps reste perturbé sur la région et les vents moyens restent autour de 50/60km/h. Les rafales s'atténuent au alentours de 80km/h.

PROCHAIN AVIS MARDI 02 FEVRIER 2010 A 05H45 LOCALES.=

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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