APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #1-2010: Cyclone Pat forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 80 nautical miles (150 kms) south-southwest of Manihiki in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 10 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kts making it a minimal tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning for Suwarrow (population 1-2 caretakes), Manihiki (population 470) and Rakahanga (population 130).

All residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Northern Cooks should rush cyclone completion to a finish and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant as the storm could pass near to or over the western part of the territory. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of the islands, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings. The many residents of isolated islands and atolls who refused to evacuate for Cyclone Oli should think twice before refusing again given the potential impact of the cumulative effects and the fact the responders may be overloaded from the effects of two storms.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/0240 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW,MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA. A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 080 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANIHIKI AT 080000 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS. PAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA BUT EXPECTED TO AFFECT SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR SUWARROW, MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA:
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SUWARROW. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080830 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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