APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #3-2010: Cyclone Pat bears down on Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone approaching the island of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 95 nautical miles (176 kms) north-northeast of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving south at 7 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kts making it a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some additional strengthening may occur throughout today.

The Cook Islands have raised a Storm Warning for Aitutaki (population 2,000) and nearby outliers, as well as a Gale Warning for the capital Rarotonga (population 15,000). A Cyclone Alert remains in effect for all of the Southern Cooks Islands.

The residents of Aitutaki should rush cyclones preparations to a finish as the storm will likely move over or very close to the island. Residents of Rarotonga and other Southern Cook Islands should monitor the storm closely and take any actions that the Government calls for.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should also monitor the progress of the storm. Increasingly it is less likely that Cyclone Pat will impact French Polynesia as a westerly turn is predicted moving it away from the area. However, as long as the storm in near the western fringe of the territory, vigilance is warranted

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL

CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 10/0031 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 100000 UTC. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST.


ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 101200 UTC AND ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110000 UTC.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND PALMERSTON:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS FROM EARLY TOMORROW. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRONG 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100330 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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