APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #4-2010: Cyclone Pat causes Widespread Damage on Aitutaki

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone moving through the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 120 nautical miles (225 kms) southwest of Aitutaki and 120 nautical miles (225 kms) northwest of Rarotonga in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southwest at 15 knots. Yesterday Cyclone Pat underwent intense strengthening and achieved Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved across Aitutaki. However in the last 12 hours, it has weakened significantly with maximum sustained winds at 55 kts making it a strong tropical storm. A weakening trend is now forecast as it moves northwest of Rarotonga.

The Cook Islands have discontinued the Hurrican Warning for Aitutaki (population 2,000) and nearby outliers. However a gale warning remains in force for Aitutaki and Rarotonga (population 15,000).

Cyclone Pat caused widespread moderate to severe destruction across Aitutaki with 90% of homes receiving damage mainly to rooves. The Cook Islands Government has subsequently declared a State of Disaster for Aitutaki. Fortunately the airport, hospital and most major buildings have only sustained minor damage so are functional, and communications and power is already being restored. The authorities had evacuated most all of Aitutaki's residents from low lying areas well before the storm impacted, so only a few minor injuries are being reported. There is widespread damage to trees, crops and other vegetation.

Given the level of damage from Aitutaki and the initial growing size of the storm, authorities raised a State of Emergency in Rarotonga, but that will likely be downgraded, given the cyclone's rapid weakening and current trajectory which will lessen the threat to Rarotonga.

Authorities across the Southern Cooks should remain vigilant, and citizens of Rarotonga should continue to monitor the storm's progress and rush any preparations to completion that the Government is recommending.

Residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should also monitor the progress of a new tropical system that is forming to the north east of Samoa as this could possibly impact on the region later next week. Occasionally in the Central Pacific when conditions are favourable, as they are now, certain area can act like 'conveyor belts' churning out systems on a regular basis. It would seem like the area to the east of Samoa above the Northern Cook Islands is rife for tropical storm production at the moment.

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 11/0036 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110000
UTC. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER AWAY.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110600 UTC AND ABOUT 260 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF RAROTONGA AT 111200 UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 60 KNOTS EASING THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS ABATING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
OVER PALMERSTON, STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110330 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.