APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #5-2010: Cyclone Rene Departs American Samoa, Bears Down on Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the US National Weather Service are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that lashed American Samoa and now threatening Tonga's Central and Southern Groups.

Cyclone Rene is located 380km east of Niuatoputapu or about 500km northeast of Vava'u at 7:00am this morning local Tonga time. Cyclone Rene is intensifying and moving
south-southwest at 10 knots. Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have average sustained winds of 80 knots with momentary gusts to 110 knots increasing later today to 95 knots with momentary gusts to 130 knots in the next 24 hours making it a borderline Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to move across Tonga as a major Category 3 storm.

Cyclone Rene is now taking aim at Tonga. The Tonga Government has raised a Hurricane Warning for the Vava'u Group and a Storm Warning for the Ha'apai Group, the main island of Tongatapu and 'Eua. A Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning has also been raised for Niue. Cyclone Rene is developing into a major storm, and this is a very dangerous situation for Tonga and Niue depending on the final path. All residents in Tonga and Niue should heed all Government advice and rush cyclone preparations to completion.

American Samoa took a good beating from Cyclone Rene. Most southern and eastern coastal areas of the main islands were evacuated. Widespread minor to locally moderate damage is being reported from Manu'a, and widespread minor damage from across Tutuila and Aunuu, but fortunately Cyclone Rene had moved to the south of the islands before it gained Category 2 status. Power is slowly being restored across the Manu'a Group. Likewise in Samoa, the Government evacuated vulnerable southern and eastern coastal areas of Upolu. However, only some minor damage has been reported. Authorities in both Samoas had been very worried about the cumulative effects of last years tsunami particularly on southern coastal areas.

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA’U GROUP (population 20,000).

A STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN FORCE FOR HA’APAI (population 8,000), TONGATAPU (population 72,000) AND ‘EUA ISLAND (population 5,200).

NIUE

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE (population 1,400)

AMERICAN SAMOA

GALE WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1,700), TUTUILA (population 55,000) AND AUNUU (population 500).

SAMOA

STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OPEN COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF UPOLU ISLAND (population 135,000). GALE WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE EAST AND NORTHERN SIDE OF UPOLU BUT IT IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND HIGHLANDS. HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF UPOLU AND SOUTHEAST SAVAI'I (population 43,000). Flood Advisory remains in effect for Upolu

TONGA

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE FOR TONGA ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE ISSUED FROM NWFC FUA'AMOTU AT 1:00PM SUNDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA’U GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN FORCE FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU AND ‘EUA ISLAND GROUPS.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 171.0W OR ABOUT 350KM NORTHEAST OF VAVA’U OR ABOUT 650KM NORTHEAST OF NUKU’ALOFA AT 12:00PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS WITH MONENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 160KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU OR ABOUT 430KM NORTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 12:00AM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE VAVAU GROUP :
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANCE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 80-90KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS INCREASING TO PHENOMINAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU AND ‘EUA:
EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60KTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KTS.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE NIUATOPUTAPU, NIUAFO’OU AND TAFAHI:
EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 KNOTS.PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

TIDES
LOW TIDE 01:54PM
HIGH TIDE 08:00PM

THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT FUA’AMOTU AT 1:00PM WAS 1005.9MB.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WITH BE ISSUED AROUND 4:00PM THIS AFTERNOON (14/2/2010)

OT/SV/UV/OF

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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