APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #3-2010: Cyclone Ului Causing Damage while Passing South of Rennell and Bellona

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that is passing to the south of Rennell and Bellona in the Solomon Islands

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 128 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Ului has continued to undergo rapid intensification through this morning and early afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kts making Ului a very powerful Category 5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to continue on a generally westerly course just to the south of the Southern Solomon Islands and then on toward the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands provinces of Makira, Rennell/Bellona, Guadalcanal, Malaita, Central and Western, and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Isabel and Choiseul Provinces including the Shortland Islands.

This is a very dangerous situation for Rennell (population 1,500) and Bellona (population 1000) as they will be closest to the centre as it passes to the south of the islands over the next 6-12 hours. Using current model forecasts, the centre of Ului should pass 80-100 kms south of Rennell this evening into tonight. That would leave the islands on the edge of sustained hurricane force wind belt of winds 64 knots or greater. Gusts will be much higher. Residents in Rennell and Bellona should rush cyclone preparations to completion at this point and heed all Government warnings. Solomon's news is reporting that many residents in Rennell and Bellona are now in shelters, and that already power is out in most areas and trees are down in some areas. Hopefully the storm centre will stay at least 80 km south and Rennell and Bellona will miss the eyewall and the most intense winds. The seas will be phenomenal across the area causing widespread coastal erosion and flooding of low lying areas.

All residents of other affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Papua New Guinea's Louisiade Group and the rest of Alotau Province should also monitor the storm carefully as it continues to moves west tomorrow.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 5:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON 14TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL, WESTERN AND MALAITA PROVINCES WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR ISABEL AND CHOISEUL PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

AT 2:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY FIVE) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 161.4 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENNELL ISLAND. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 115 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN MAKIRA PROVINCE AND EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MALAITA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ALONG ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT.

STORM FORCE WINDS (48 TO 63 KNOTS) IS NOW INFORCE FOR RENNELL/BELLONA PROVINCE AND EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (64KNOTS AND ABOVE) IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 33 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER TEMOTU, CENTRAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL INUNDATION (COASTAL FLOODING) OVER LOW COASTAL AREAS OVER RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA AND TEMOTU PROVINCES INCLUDING SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL, WESTERN AND RUSSELLS ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH WITH HIGH SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE PROVINCES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND ADVICE, CALL - 933

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

DATE: 14TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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