APCEDI ALERT 02F #6, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Dissipates East of Vanuatu

Tropical Depression 02F is weakening and beginning to dissipate to the east of Vanuatu as it experiences increased shear and lower sea surface temperatures. The latest from the Fiji Meteorological Service moves the storm poleward while dissipating the depression in 24-48 hours in the open ocean well south of Vanuatu and Fiji.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S, 171.5E AT 140800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWARDS 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 RISING TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 MILES AND 90 MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN SECTORS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTHEAST.

DEPRESSION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED WITH LLCC EXPOSED WELL SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 140800 UTC BASED ON SHEAR PATTERNYIELDS T1.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. LLCC CURRENTLY LIES SOUTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE. SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 02F FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION POLEWARD WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

Some intermittent squalls will continue over Eastern and Southern Vanuatu Islands, but these will gradually diminish during the day tomorrow. This will be the last APCEDI Alert on this system unless it should unexpectedly reform or otherwise threaten any island areas.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/