APCEDI ALERT 05F #4, 2005: Tropical Storm 08P (05F) Special Advisory for Vanuatu and Strong Wind Warning for Rotuma, Fiji

The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a Special Advisory for Vanuatu due to Tropical Storm 08P (05F);

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 172.9E AT 050600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS FROM SECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOW DECREASED WITH CONVECTIONS BECOMING LESS ORGANISED SINCE THE PAST 6 HOURS. LLCC PLACED SOUTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED TO WEST, WHICH IS ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY ORGANISED DEEP CONVECTION. SST AROUND 30C. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.35 ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF T2.5/2.5/S1.0/12HRS. 05F IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE DUE TO APPROACHING SHARP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND DECREASING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 05F SOUTHWEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

IF TD 05F INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF VANUATU, ABOUT AND NORTH OF ESPIRITU SANTO FROM 061200 UTC.

HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051400 UTC.


The Fiji Meteorological Service has also issued a strong wind warning for Rotuma as Tropical Storm 08P (05F) passes 150-200 kms to the west the Fiji outlier.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ROTUMA.
North to northeast winds 40 to 50 kilometres per hour, gusting 60 kilometres per hour. Rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Poor visibility in rain.//

All concerns in the Temotu Province of the Eastern Solomons (including Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia), Rotuma Island, Fiji and Northern and Central Vanuatu should monitor this tropical storm closely and be ready to take cyclone preparedness measures immediately should the storm threaten. All concerns in Southern Vanuatu, Fiji and New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/