APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Monica #1-2006: Cyclone Monica forms off Central and Milne Bay Provinces, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Monica which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Monica is approximately 200 km south of Alotau or 320 km southeast of Port Moresby, PNG moving south-southwestward at 24 km/hour. It is currently at Tropical Storm Strength and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours. Monica is expected to turn more to the west later tonight and head toward the Queensland Coast.

Gusty showers with gales are currently moving through the area to the east of Kupiano and affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Heavy rain showers and gales will continue over much of this area for the next 12 hours until the storm system clears the area. However any damage is likely to be light.

All interests in the above named areas should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm moves away.

As Cyclone Monica is now headed for Queensland, APCEDI will only issue further bulletins if it changes course and threatens any Pacific Islands.


From the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:45am on Monday the 17th of April 2006

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities between Torres Strait and Cape Melville, and including the west coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Mapoon.

At 10 am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 1, was centred near latitude 12.4 south longitude 150.0 east, which is 620 km kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 710 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving southwest at about 13 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify and adopt a general westward track during the next two days and be near the east coast of Cape York Peninsula during Wednesday morning.

People between Torres Strait and Cape Melville and far northern Cape York Peninsula should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5pm EST today. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.
________________________

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 149.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 12 AND AN OFFSET UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE FAVOR- ABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 162021ZAPR2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 162030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.