APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Kate #1-2006: Cyclone Kate heading toward Central and Milne Bay Provinces, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Kate which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Kate is approximately 220 km south-southeast of Port Moresby moving east at 18 km/hour.

Cyclone Kate has rapidly strengthened to Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours as it heads towards eastern Central Province and Milne Bay Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Gusty showers with gales are currently moving into the area to the east of Kupiano and affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Heavy rain showers and gales will continue over much of this area and move into the Louisades later tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.

All interests in the above named areas as well as the remainder of the Eastern half of Central Province and all of Milne Bay Province, especially the Alotau and Samari areas and the Louisades, should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm approaches tonight and tomorrow. Forecast tracks are not in agreement at this point with some models showing a turn away from PNG and others showing a direct hit on the Louisades and Southern Milne Bay.

From the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 10pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure 985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 147.4E, about 460 km east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the east at about 18 km/hr, however it is expected to slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Currently Tropical Cyclone Kate poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

The next bulletin will be issued from the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 5am Friday morning.
________________________

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 146.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.