APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #6-2006: Cyclone Jim Descends on Loyalty Islands (Iles Loyauté), New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Meteo France has issued a Level 2 Alert for the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and continues a "Préalerte" for Grande Terre and Ile des Pins as well as for Vanuatu. Meteo Francelikewise continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine" for New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has now issued a Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently just 50 km northeast of the Island of Ouvéa in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and is moving to the east-southeast at 35 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at a Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it passes north of Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté).

Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass 50 kms north of the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of Lifou and Maré as a strong Category 1 storm. Very heavy rains and gales are now being experienced throughout much of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) except for Maré which is still outside the area of central dense overcast. Winds are being sustained at strong tropical storm strength and reaching gusts of hurricane force Category 1 across the much of the Ouvea, Lifou and Tiga. Conditions will likewise deteriorate on Maré in the next few hours. This will result in much damage to trees, gardens and other vegetation and localised coastal flooding of low lying areas in the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté). However, as Cyclone Jim is small and is moving very fast, severe conditions should not last long and should improve quickly as the storm passes. On the positive side, the storm will bring much needed rain to New Caledonia which has been plagued by drought and bushfires during the last several months. Extensive, up-to-date news on Cyclone Jim from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) can be found on the website of main daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes.

After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean. On the forecast trajectory, the southern islands of Vanuatu will escape being hit but will nonetheless experience very high seas with damaging waves, causing problems for shipping and resulting in localised coastal flooding and erosion. Latest forecasts are now showing Cyclone Jim stalling south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) so both countries should maintain on-going monitoring even after the storm has passed. Should the storm stall both New Caledonia and Vanuatu should expect very rough seas for several days.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal was closed to shipping earlier yesterday as the result of strong winds and rough seas. SIDT, the AFAP Partner Office in Honiara, is reporting the grounding of one of the larger Inter-Island Ferries and that several of the larger Solgreen fishing boats, that had been impounded at the wharf for non-payment of tax and NPF, were smashed up by the rough seas. The port is still restricted due to the damage and continued high seas. Small craft are likely to remain ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona as seas are still quite high in these southernmost of the Solomon Islands.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia. While the storm is moving away from the Solomon Islands, interests there should still expect very rough seas in Southern parts of the country.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EXPECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERAIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//
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From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 310209
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 004.
REDIGE LE 31/01/06 A 13H00 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 11H00 LOCALES LE 31/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 19,9 SUD 167,0 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 146 MILLES NAUTIQUES
(270 KM) DANS LE NORD-NORD-EST (13°) DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 970 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 18 NOEUDS (35 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 130 KM/H (RAFALES A 195 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE
35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 115 KM/H (RAFALES A 175 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 35
KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 85 KM/H (RAFALES A 130 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE
35 ET 75 KM DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 60 KM/H (RAFALES A 90 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 75
ET 185 KM DU CENTRE.
TEXTE DU BMS : LE CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" SE TROUVAIT A 11H CE MATIN ENTRE 50 ET 100 KM DANS LE NORD NORD-EST D'OUVEA. IL POURSUIVRA AUJOURD'HUI UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST QUI LE FERA PASSER EN FIN D'APRES-MIDI A ENVIRON 100 KM DANS LE NORD DE MARE. EN CONSEQUENCE, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES LOYAUTE AVEC DES RAFALES QUI POURRONT ATTEINDRE 100 KM/H SUR LIFOU ET MARE CET APRES-MIDI. CETTE NUIT, "JIM" S'ELOIGNERA DU TERRITOIRE ET LES VENTS FAIBLIRONT SUR LES LOYAUTE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 19H LOCALES.=
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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number THREE for Vanuatu on TC JIM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0300 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [960hPa] centre was located near 21.0 South 167.6 East at 310200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, decreasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the south. On its current forecast track, JIM is expected to pass about 140 miles to the southwest of Aneityum around 310600 UTC. Expect very strong to near gale force winds about Aneityum, Tanna, Erromango, Tanna, Aniwa and Futuna. Winds easing by midnight tonight. Damaging
heavy swells expected with sea flooding of western and northwestern coastal areas.

FORECASTS :
12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
310800 UTC.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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