APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #4-2006: Cyclone Jim bears down on New Caledonia

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Mateo France has issued a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Public" and a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine for New Caledonia" and continues a "Préalerte" for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 750 km northwest of Noumea, the New Caledonian capital and is moving to the east-southeast at 30 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Category 1 Strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is likely to remain at this strength as it approaches, Ile Surprise, Grande Terre and the Loyalty Islands.

Cyclone Jim is forecast to continue tracking east-southeastward to the south of the Solomon Islands toward Grande Terre the main island of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). The Solomons port of Guadalcanal has been closed to shipping earlier today as the result of strong winds and rough seas, and all small craft have been ordered to shore on the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona.

Current forecasts have Cyclone Jim passing just to the north of Grande Terre and making near direct hits on Ile Surprise and the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) as a weak Category 1 storm. After impacting New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), Cyclone Jim is forecast to pass to the south of Vanuatu before passing into the Southern Ocean south of Tonga.

All interests in Grande Terre and les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes by in the next 24 hours.

All interests in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Tonga should continue to monitor this storm closely as it pass New Caledonia.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 292111Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A NORTHWEST- TO SOUTHEAST-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF TC 09C. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST SIX HOUR WARNING INTERVAL FOR TC 10P. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE TC 10P WARNINGS EVERY 12 HOURS HEREAFTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.//
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From Meteo France

WHNC05 NWBB 300741
BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL PUBLIC NUMERO 001.
REDIGE LE 30/01/06 A 18H20 LOCALES.
AVIS DE CYCLONE.
A 17H00 LOCALES LE 30/01/06, CYCLONE TROPICAL "JIM" :
- CENTRE PAR 17,3 SUD 161,9 EST, SOIT A ENVIRON 404 MILLES NAUTIQUES
(750 KM) DANS LE NORD-OUEST (318°) DE NOUMEA.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 970 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT EST-SUD-EST 16 NOEUDS (30 KM/H).
VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 120 KM/H (RAFALES A 180 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE
35 KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 115 KM/H (RAFALES A 175 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON DE 45
KM AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 85 KM/H (RAFALES A 130 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE
45 ET 95 KM DU CENTRE.
VENTS SUPERIEURS A 60 KM/H (RAFALES A 90 KM/H) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 95
ET 240 KM DU CENTRE.
TEXTE DU BMS : LES VENTS VONT SE RENFORCER AU COURS DE LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI SUR LES BELEP ET LE NORD DE LA GRANDE TERRE. EN FIN DE NUIT, ILS ATTEINDRONT SUR LES BELEP 85 A 90 KM/H AVEC DES RAFALES PROCHES DE 120 A 130 KM/H. SUR LA GRANDE TERRE, AU NORD D'UNE LIGNE KONE/POINDIMIE, LES VENTS ATTEINDRONT 60 KM/H AVEC DES RAFALES PROCHES DE 90 KM/H. UNE ATTENUATION PROGRESSIVE EST ATTENDUE AU COURS DE LA MATINEE DE MARDI.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL PUBLIC LE 31/01/06 A 02H LOCALES.=
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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