APCEDI Alert SP/SM Cyclone Urmil (06F) #3-2006: Cyclone Urmil passing east of Vava'u Group

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on newly formed Cyclone Urmil (formally Tropical Depression 06F).

Cyclone Urmil is now located in Northern Tonga about 90 km east-northeast of Vava'u (population 15,000). Cyclone Urmil is currently moving south-southeast at 18 kt (33 km/hr) and if it continues on this forecast course is likely to pass to the east of the main Central and Southern Tonga Groups and well to the west of Niue in the next 12 hours.

Cyclone Urmil is currently passing 90 km east of the Vava'u Group so they are receiving intermittent gales and tidal flooding. It is forecast to pass about 150 km east of the Ha'apai Group (population 9,000) and later tonight about 180 km east of the Nomuka Group (only sparsely/seasonally inhabited). When Urmil passes the main capital island group of Tongatapu, it should well to the east of the group by about 300 km so they will only feel the fringe of the storm. Given the more southerly direction Cyclone Urmil should not come more than 300 km west of Niue, so the effects should be low to there as well, so this is also much better news than previously. Nonetheless a change in course in either direction could bring the cyclone much closer very quickly.

As Urmil is at Tropical Storm strength and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, some tidal flooding and wind damage is likely, and all residents in the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Tongatapu Groups and Niue should continue to closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities. Also, the cumulative effects of this very active trough which has included Cyclones Urmil and Tam with Depression 05F in the last 3 days, could begin to result in increasing crop damage, significant coastal erosion, and localised flooding of low-lying areas particularly in the Niuas Group of Tonga, which is the area to have recieved direct hits from both Tam and Urmil.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from other island areas such Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

Damage Report from Futuna from Cyclone Tam: Many branches down, several trees down and one large yacht stranded on the reef. No injuries or major damage reported. This is similar to the damage being reported from Niuafo'au, Niuas Group, Tonga after the passage of Cyclone Tam.

With Cyclone Urmil and the very active Convergence Zone and all the tropical storm activity, there are a wide array of advisories, alerts and warnings that have been raised. The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI GROUP AND IS CANCELLED FOR NIUATOPUTAPU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

NIUE
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY
STRONG WIND ADVISORY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING
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FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8S 173.2W at 140600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southsoutheast 18 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Primary band continues to wrap tightly around LLCC. Fanning of cirrus indicates improved outflow channels to the south and west, and becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=3.0 and MET=2.5, yields T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12hrs. Urmil lies under divergent 250-hpa flow ahead of an approaching trough. Environmental shear is around 10 to 20 knots, however resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Global models that have captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some initial intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 21.7S 172.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 45 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.5S 170.6W mov SSE at 25kt with 45 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 29.8S 167.7W mov SE at 28kt with 40kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 34.4S 164.1W mov SE at 30kt with 40kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will be issued around 141400 UTC.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued
from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0746 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI GROUP AND IS CANCELLED FOR NIUATOPUTAPU.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1 SOUTH 173.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU AT 140700 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 18.1S 173.1W AT 140700 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAVAU GROUP AT 141200 UTC OR 100 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF HA'APAI GROUP AND ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOMUKA GROUP AT 141500 UTC.

FOR VAVAU GROUP, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND HA'APAI GROUP: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE NIUAS:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 T0 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING AND TURNING SOUTHERLY.
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TONIGHT. RAIN DEVELOPING, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY
SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO URMIL'S CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF
CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL ISSUED AROUND 141045 UTC. TONGA MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
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Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Niue ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0442 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8 SOUTH 173.4 WEST OR ABOUT 440 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 140300 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 16.8S 173.4W AT 140300 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27KM/HR AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 74 KM/HR CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KH/HR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 65 KM/HR WITHIN 185 KILOMETRES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 290 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF NIUE AT 140900 UTC AND ABOUT 200 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE AT 141500.

IF THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS ITS TRACK OR MOVE CLOSER TO NIUE, WINDS MAY INCREAE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE OVER THE ISLAND FROM LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 37 TO 45 KILOMETRES PER HOUR GUSTING 65 KILOMETRES PER HOUR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 95 KM/HR FROM LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR NIUE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140930 UTC.
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FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 172.9W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140221Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 140230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180 and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 140800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 017 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 14/0712 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8 SOUTH 173.2 WEST AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 17.8S 173.2W AT 140600 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.7S 172.4W AT 141800 UTC AND NEAR 25.5S 170.6W AT 150600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 015.

CANCEL WARNING 016.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 150600 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE [990HPA] NEAR 17.8S 173.2W AT 14/0600 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. APART FROM GALE WARNING AREAS MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 017 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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