APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Tam (04F) #4-2006: Cyclone Tam becomes Season's First Cyclone, Bears down on Tonga

RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on both Cyclone Tam ( formerly Tropical Depression 04F) and Tropical Depression 05F.

This evening depression 04F has intensified into the South Pacific season's first Tropical Cyclone, Cyclone Tam. Depression 05F also continues to slowly strengthen. Both these systems are causing very stormy weather for many island areas in the South Pacific. A number of advisories, alerts and warnings continue across the region.

Cyclone Tam (04F) is located 160 kms east-southeast of Futuna or about 170 kms west-northwest of Niuafo'ou, Tonga, and it moving east at 15 knots (28 km/hr). It is expected to curve east-southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone Tam is currently at minimal Tropical Storm strength.

Depression 05F is located about 170 km east of Niue or 600 kms south-southeast of Pago Pago in American Samoa and is moving west-southwest 10 knots (19 km/hr).

The island of Futuna spent several hours near the centre of the Cyclone Tam earlier today, but as the storm was still quite small in intensity, it is likely that only minor damage and minor localised flooding resulted. Reports should come in later tomorrow. Futuna is a French Protectorate with just over 4,800 inhabitants.

Later tonight and tomorrow, Cyclone Tam will be bearing down on the Northern Tongan Niuas Group consisting of the main islands Niuafo'ou (population 500), Tafahi (population 60) and Niuatoputapu (population 1400). As it is a weak cyclone and moving quite quickly, damage is not likely to be too significant. Nonetheless, all Niuas Gruop residents should closely monitor the storm and all newscasts and follow all instructions issued by local authorities.

All interests in Tonga, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this situation carefully and listen to news and weather reports as the situations develops over the next few days. Even though the storms are moving away from Fiji, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, and American Samoa, seas will remain very rough throughout much of the area and the associated trough is still causing locally strong winds, and heavy rains and thunderstorms. Where advisories, alerts and warnings have been raised all people should take appropriate action as instructed by local authorities. Pacific NGOs should monitor this situation very carefully.

The following is a list of advisories, alerts and warnings currently in effect.

CURRENT ADVISORIES, ALERTS AND WARNINGS

TONGA -
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA-
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

NIUE-A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

SAMOA - FLOOD ADVISORY, STRONG WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

AMERICAN SAMOA - WIND ADVISORY, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

FIJI - A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

TUVALU - STONG WIND WARNING

SOUTHWEST MARINE - GALE WARNING


FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
CYCLONE TAM

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South 177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90 miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to
southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours, while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24 hours.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will be issued around 121400 UTC.

FROM RSMC-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION O5F

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.3S 170.0W at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving westsouthwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle.

LLCC lies exposed and deep convection is displaced about half a degree to the southeast. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 45 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the system is 30-40 knots. Depression currently steered southwest by mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the depression further south with lesser chances of intensification. Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 121430 UTC.


Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Wallis and Futuna ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI Jan 12/0956 UTC 2006 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 176.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF WALLIS AND 100 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA AT 120900 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF WALLIS AND 130 MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 121200 UTC AND 160 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF WALLIS OR 210 MILES TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST OF FUTUNA BY 121800 UTC.

FOR WALLIS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, EASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR FUTUNA :
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE GRADUALLY FROM LATER TONIGHT AND TURN SOUTHERLY. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AT 121530 UTC.

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0832 UTC 2006 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING-TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 177.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUAFO'OU OR ABOUT 220 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUATOPUTAPU AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS FORCAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS GOING TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NIUAS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF TONGA TOMORROW.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU, NORTHWEST WINDS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING LIKELY. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH
SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180 and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Jan 120800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 005 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 12/0719 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 177.3 WEST AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 177.3W AT 120600 UTC.CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE EASTSOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.6S 174.7W AT 121800 UTC AND NEAR 17.2S 172.7W AT 130600 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 003

GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0731 UTC 2006 UTC.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 170.0W AT 120600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 004.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Jan 130600 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE [991HPA] NEAR 14.7S 177.3W POSITION POOR. MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 005 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [996HPA] NEAR 20.3S 170.0W. MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA MENTIONED IN GALE WARNING NUMBER 006 EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 300 TO 360 MILES OF CENTRE. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these systems as they develop.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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