APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 07B (TD 3), #3, 2006: Cyclone 07B Approaching Northeast Coast of Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to provide guidance on Cyclone 07B in the Bay of Bengal, east of Sri Lanka. Cyclone 07B has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities, but this is like tonight or early tomorrow. The centre of Cyclone 07B is located about 350 km east of Colombo, 200 km east of Batticaloa and 450 km southeast of Nagapattinam and is moving to the northwest at 7 kt.

The JTWC has issued 2 cyclone alerts for this system. It is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is forecast to slowly strengthen. It will possibly cross the northeast coast of Sri Lanka sometime tomorrow, although recent models have slightly shifted its track to paralleling the northeast coast just offshore. A large area of convection is now situated just to the northeast of Sri Lanka and outer rain bands continue to approach the Sri Lankan northern and eastern coasts. Evacuations have been occurring today in Sri Lanka for many low-lying coastal areas in northern, northeastern, eastern, southeastern and southern parts of the island including low-lying, flood-prone areas of Jaffna, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Kalmunai and Hambantota. Outer rainbands, some heavy, have been affecting most of these areas throughout the day.

Given the recent the heavy rainfall from Cyclones Baaz and Fanoos in the last few weeks, the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka is very high. Many rivers are also running very high. In addition Cyclone Fanoos last week impacted on much of the Jaffna Peninsula causing much light to moderate damage to roofs, crops and smalls houses. Much crop damage also occurred in Central Tamil Nadu.

Therefore, as Cyclone 07B marks a continuation of this string of tropical cyclones, it could exacerbate the situation over the much of the area with flooding and wind damage. This is particularly true for the Jaffna Peninsula and for internally displaced people still in temporary housing from last year's tsunami. Cyclone 07B, at its current strength and speed has the potential to cause localised to widespread flooding for flood-prone areas throughout much of Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka. This includes storm surge flooding, flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh in India should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings. The Governments of both Sri Lanka and India are again calling on all fisherman and maritime interests in the area to stay in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

170900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDOCHINA. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED POLEWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE STORM SHOULD INTENSIFY MODESTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 17th-18th.
The depression in the Bay of Bengal was near latitude 08.0N longitude and 84.5E at 0900 today 17th December 2005. The distance of the system is about 200-250 km East of Batticoloa. It is likely to be intensified as a cyclonic storm and to move in a west-northwest direction. The centre is expected to cross the Eastern coast between Trincomalee and Jaffna, tomorrow.

The fishing and naval community is requested not to venture to the seas extending from Mannar to Batticaloa through Jaffna, tomorrow as the seas will experience strong winds (up to 80-100 kmph), very rough conditions and rain during the next 36 hours.

Intermittent rain or thundershowers, heavy in some places, and strong winds up to 80kmph are expected in Northern, Eastern, North-Central Provinces. Western, Central, Uva and Sabaragamuwa Provinces will also experience fairly strong winds and rain at times.

Low lying coastal zones north of Trincomalee are likely to be inundated by sea waves generated by strong winds.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/07 Dated : 17th December, 2005

Subject : Deep Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved north-westwards and lay centered at 1430 IST of 17th December, 2005 near Lat. 8.50 N and Long. 83.50 E about 500 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu coast across northern Srilanka during the next 48 hours.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely along Tamilnadu coast during next 48 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off Tamilnadu coast during the same period.

State of sea will be rough to very rough along and off Tamilnadu coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

ISOLATED HEAVY FALL IS LIKELY ALONG TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG WINDS WITH SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY ALONG AND OFF TAMILNADU COAST DURING THE SAME PERIOD. STATE OF SEA WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF TAMILNADU COAST. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.


APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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