APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Fanoos (06B/TD 2), #8, 2006:Cyclone Fanoos Strengthens as it crosses Jaffna Peninsula toward the Tamil Nadu Coast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to provide guidance on Cyclone Fanoos (06B/TD2) in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Fanoos is located about 200 km east-northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka or 300 km southeast of Cuddalore, Tamil Nadu and is again picking up forward speed to the west. Fanoos has strengthened to a Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The JTWC has issued 9 cyclone alerts for this system. Heavy rain bands of the system are moving across Northern Sri Lanka and continuing to come onshore in coastal Tamil Nadu. This is a serious situation for both Southeast India and Northern Sri Lanka with both nations being impacted by Fanoos. Both countries are warning all maritime and fishing interests in affected areas to stay in port. Satellite imagery is showing that Fanoos is currently crossing over the Jaffna Peninsula. It is therefore likely that minor to moderate damage on the Jaffna Peninsula and adjacent areas of Northern Sri Lanka could be widespread and in some areas locally severe. Tsunami refugees in these areas, many still in temporary shelters, could be particularly badly affected.

Given the heavy flooding in Tamil Nadu from Cyclone Baaz, and the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka from subsequent tropical waves, Cyclone Fanoos has the potential to cause widespread severe to localised devastating flooding across the area in and around where it comes ashore including areas of Northern Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu State. This includes storm surge flooding, continued flooding of large area rivers and flash-flooding in hill areas. Chennai's 2 main rivers, the Adyar and Cooum continue at or near flood stage in many areas throughout the city and in rural areas. Thus any additional heavy rain in and around Chennai has the potential to make the situation much worse. More details on the news of the flooding in Chennai can be found in The Hindu. More news on the situation in Sri Lanka can be found in The Lanka Academic.

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and in Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

092100Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (FANOOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06B CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN PAKISTAN. THE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SO UNTIL LANDFALL ALTHOUGH GROUND INTERACTIONS WILL WEAKEN IT SOMEWHAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 10th.
Cyclonic storm "Fanoos", according to latest observations, is moving toward Jaffna Peninsula. It is likely to cross Jaffna Peninsula between midnight (09th) and tomorrow morning. The sea areas off the coast extending from Mannar to Trincomalee via Jaffna will experience very rough conditions, strong winds and intermittent rain and thundershowers. Therefore, it is requested to refrain from fishing and naval activities in the said areas.

Northern, Northwestern, Eastern and North central provinces will experience rain or thundershowers with strong winds. Cloudy and occasional rain and thundershowers with fairly strong winds are expected in the Central, Western, and Sabaragamuwa provinces.

Winds will be Northwesterly or Variable and the speed will be 40-80 km/h gusting up to 100 km/h in the northern areas.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/30 Dated : 10th December, 2005
Subject : Cyclone Warning for Tamilnadu Coast

The Cyclonic Storm, 'Fanoos' over southwest Bay of Bengal Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2330 IST of 9th December 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 81.50 E about 230 km southeast of Cuddalore. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a westerly direction and cross Tamilnadu coast between Tondi and Pondicherry around noon of 10th December 2005.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 to 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also likely over interior Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema during the same period.

Gale force wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph are likely along and off Tamilnadu coast between Tondi and Pondicherry damaging thatched huts, breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication line in coastal Tamilnadu between Tondi and Pondicherry during next 24 hours. Squally winds with speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely along and off rest Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts during the same period.

Storm surge of 1 - 2 metres above astronomical tide likely to occur around the point of landfall inundating low lying areas.

State of sea will be high to very high along and off Tamilnadu coast between Tondi and Pondicherry and rough to very rough along and off rest Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts. Fishermen along these coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

1). HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY FALLS ARE LIKELY AT A FEW PLACES OVER COASTAL TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY AND SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY FALLS ALSO LIKELY OVER INTERIOR TAMILNADU AND RAYALASEEMA DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

2. GALE WITH WIND SPEED REACHING 60-70 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMILNADU COAST. SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH ALSO LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT ALONG AND OFF SOUTH TAMILANDU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS. STATE OF SEA WILL BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AS ALONG AND OFF NORTH TAMILNADU AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF SOUTH TAMILNADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS . FISHERMEN ALONG THE ABOVE COASTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Fanoos as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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