APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone 06B (TD 2), #3, 2006: New Cyclone forms in Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are providing guidance on newly formed Cyclone 06B in the Bay of Bengal, west of the Andaman Islands. This cyclone has formed from tropical depression TD 2, which has been the subject of two previous APCEDI Reports.

Tropical Depression 2D has now strengthened into Cyclone 06B. It has not yet been given a name by the Indian authorities, but this is like to occur tomorrow. Cyclone 06B is located about 200 km west of Port Blair or 920 km east of Chennai and is moving to the west-northwest at 09 kt. The JTWC has issued 2 cyclone alerts for this system.

Given the heavy flooding in Tamil Nadu from Cyclone Baaz, and the saturation of soils throughout much of Southeast India and Sri Lanka from subsequent tropical waves, this system has the potential to cause significant additional flooding in the same Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh border area. Chennai's 2 main rivers, the Adyar and Cooum have topped their banks in many areas throughout the city and in rural areas. 75,000 residents have been evacuated to 140 relief shelters in and around the city. Thus any additional heavy rain in and around Chennai in the next 2-4 days has the potential to make the situation worse. More details on the news of the flooding in Chennai can be found in The Hindu

Authorities, aid workers and residents, especially in Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh border area should maintain extreme vigilance with this system. Maritime interests including fisherfolk in both countries should follow the warnings now being put out by their respective Governments and not venture out to sea in affected areas.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

060900z position near 11.7n 88.3e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 06b, located approximately 500 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past 06 hours. Tc 06b will continue to track to the west along the southwestern periphery of a low to mid-level steering ridge. An environment of moderate vertical wind shear will cause tc 06b to intensify at a less than climatological rate through the forecast period. Maximum significant wave height at 060600z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 062100z and 070900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

For December 06th.
Scattered showers will be experienced in the sea areas around the island and intermittent showers and thundershowers are expected over the North-Eastern deep seas. Winds will be North-Easterly or Variable and the speed will be 20-40 km/h. North-Eastern deep seas will be rough.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/12/2005/02 Dated : 06th December, 2005

Subject: Pre-Cyclone watch.

Morning's depression over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1130 IST of 06th December, 2005 neat Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 89.50 E about 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 3 days. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Bay Islands during next 24 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period.

State of the sea near Bay Islands will be rough to very rough. Fishermen in these area are advised not to venture into the sea.

Yesterday’s well marked low pressure area has concentrated into a depression and now lies over southeast Bay of Bengal with its center near lat. 10. 5ºN/long. 89.5ºE about 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and track west-northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu-south Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast during next 3 days. Under its influence widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls and strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off Bay islands during next 24 hrs. Subsequently the weather situation over these islands will improve.

WARNINGS

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Rainfall activity is likely to increase over south Peninsula with possibility of isolated heavy to very heavy falls.


APCEDI will continue to monitor this cyclone as it moves toward India and Sri Lanka.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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