APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #8: Rainbands come ashore as Cyclone Baaz slowly inches toward Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Coast

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its eighth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 360 km east of Chennai, and has been tracking very slowly westward at 2 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India. Cyclone Baaz has maintained tropical storm strength over the last 12 hours, and forecasts are now calling for only slight strengthening before it crosses the coast.

The system continues to slowly approach the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region with the initial outer rain bands now moving onto shore between between Chennai and Machilipatnam. This remains a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is likely to be between Northern Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and South-Central Andhra Pradesh (Machilipatnam). The slow movement of the storm could result in very serious flooding especially as the area is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression. The Andhra Pradesh State Government has placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert and evacuations from vulnerable coastal and riverside areas are continuing. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India should continue to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast.

The Sri Lanka Government is now continuing its advice only for northern off-shore areas, as the seas around the northern part of the island are very rough. The Government is calling for all maritime interests to remain in port.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b (baaz), located approximately 200 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked westward at 02 knots over the past 06 hours. Under weak steering right now, the speed of the system should increase as a ridge to the east builds in over the next 24 hours. Intensification will be limited by moderate vertical wind shear and less than ideal outflow. Weakening of the system will begin past tau 24 due to land effects and eventual impact with India. Maximum significant wave height at 010600z is 18 feet. Next warnings at 012100z and 020900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

01 December 2005
The fishing and naval community is further informed that the Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery. Winds will be between Westerly and Northwesterly and the speed will be 20-40 km/h.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/26 Dated 01ST December, 2005
Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly westwards and lay centered at 1130 IST of 01ST December, 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 83.5o E about 350 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by early morning of 3rd December, 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast by afternoon of 2nd December.

State of sea will be high to very high off extreme north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tonight for next 2-3 days.

Strong winds with speed reaching 80-90 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. State of sea will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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