APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #3: Tropical Cyclone Strengthens as it tracks slowly west to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone 05B in the Bay of Bengal. The Cyclone has been named Baaz (named supplied by Oman) following the recently developed system for naming Northern Indian Ocean Cyclones.

The JTWC has issued its third Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation is now some 200 km west-southwest of Port Blair in the South Andamans. The weather in the Andaman and Nicobar islands is improving as the Cyclone has been moving away.

Cyclone Baaz, which is approximately 900 km east-southeast of Chennai or 600 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, had been tracking westward at 10 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of South east India. However, more recent satellite information, indicates Baaz has slowed and may be stationary for the moment. Baaz continues to slowly strengthen.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in 24-36 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for Cyclone Baaz.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it moves westward. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 425 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone is on the southern periphery of a narrow, mid-level steering ridge centered over the Northern Bay of Bengal. By the end of the forecast period, tc 05b will turn more poleward and the rate of translation will decrease as it enters the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. The storm will intensify at a less than climatological rate as moderate vertical wind shear will displace the deep convection to the west of the low level circulation center. Maximum significant wave height at 281800z is 13 feet. Next warnings at 290900z and 292100z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
A depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm and about 6000 km to the east of Trincomalee at 29th, 0300 hrs in the morning. It is moving in a West-Northwest direction. Under its influence, especially , the deep sea areas seas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Pottuvil via Trincomalee will experience very rough seas, strong winds and rain or thundershowers.

Most parts of the island will be cloudy. There will be showers or thundershowers at several places in the Northern, Eastern, North Central provinces and in the Southwest quarter with isolated fairly heavy falls. Showers or thundershowers will develop over the rest of the island particularly during the afternoon and evening.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 88.00 E about 900 km east -southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamilnadu- south Andhra coast during next 48 hours. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to commence along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast from 30th morning onwards. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence from 30th morning along and off the above coast. State of sea will become rough to very rough from that time onwards. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from November 30th for next 2-3 days.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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