APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #2, 2006: Tropical Depression Threatens Sri Lanka, Southeastern India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the Northeast Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has downgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from fair to poor. However, the system is still capable of heavy rains, winds and storms over the area. The system is currently slowly drifting northwest towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast.

The main areas of convection of this system lie to the north of Sri Lanka and associated convection continues to bring intermittent heavy showers along the north and east coasts from Jaffna to Ampara, and these could continue over the next 24 hours over the East, Northwestern, Northcentral and Central Provinces depending on the system's track and forward speed. Shower activity will also become more widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Hambantota and around the Southwest Bay of Bengal should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the east and northern Sri Lankan coasts, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201231Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE CONVECTION AND BROAD 850 MB VORTICITY TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

21 November 2005 for 21-22 November 2005
The low pressure area in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists and it was about 200 km east of Trincomalee on 21 at 0900 hours. It is likely to move in a northwest direction slowly. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Eastern, North Central, Northwestern and Central Provinces. Some places will receive heavy falls. Occasional showers accompanied by fairly strong winds are also expected elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwards and now lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 8.5º N /long. 83.0º E about 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry during next 2-3 days. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over interior Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This enhanced rainfall activity is likely to extend into Kerala, interior parts of Karnataka rest Andhra Pradesh after 48 hours.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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