APCEDI ALERT 12F #2, 2005: CYCLONE RAE CONTINUES MOVING WEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Minimal Cyclone Rae continues moving southeast at 15-17 kt. Rae's centre lies about 200miles (320 km) westsouthwest of Rarotonga. This is the 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level. The Fiji Meteorological Service has raised a Gale Warning Rarotonga and Mangaia and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Southern Cooks.

Authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring more gale-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of the Southern Cooks. The models are somewhat divergent on the movements of Rae over the next 48 hours with the FMS moving it slowly more eastward and the JTWC showing a western turn after 36 hours.

Should Rae's future course be more easterly and cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia, localised flash-flooding could result. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes. This is in relation to Percy's remnants.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0232 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 163.4W OR ABOUT 210 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 060200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA BY 060900 UTC AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA BY 061500 UTC AND MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BY TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060600 UTC OR EARLIER.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator