APCEDI ALERT 10F #19, 2005: POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 SUPER-CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PALMERSTON ATOLL

The JTWC is now estimating maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 140 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy now lies 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston Atoll and is moving southsoutheast as 10 kt.

Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest earlier today which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston, but unfortunately, it is now jogging back southsoutheast tonight erasing most of the westward gain. So for Palmerston, it is very much a matter of waiting another 6-18 hours to see how close the storm will come. Current forecasts have the eye coming within 65-95 miles west to southwest of Palmerston. That would result in a very strong tidal surge and damaging storm force winds. Current winds on Palmerston are NE 30 kt gusting to 35 kt, with periodic squalls. The next high tide will be tomorrow morning just after dawn.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Storm Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place tonight and tomorrow. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules landed in Penrhyn this afternoon and loading of supplies onto the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa will be finished tomorrow morning. The Mataroa will arrive in Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy is moving southsoutheast at 10 kt toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston. Percy is now a very powerful Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to maintain current strength over the next 12-36 hours and gradually weaken thereafter. After passing Palmerston the storm is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 200 miles from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain off shore.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news today is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. A C-130 plane is currently flying from Pago Pago over Swains and will be dropping a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued and in American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change tonight and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should continue to be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/0907 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 165.1W OR ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 020700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021200 UTC AND ABOUT 85 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021800 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF UP TO 65 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH SPEEDS 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TONIGHT. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN SPREADING OVER THE GROUP FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 021200 UTC OR EARLIER.
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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2326 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 DEGREES SOUTH 165.3 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 012300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020600 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY IN SQUALLS. SCATTERED RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 020415 UTC.
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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator