APCEDI ALERT 10F #11, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY POUNDS PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU ISLANDS IN NORTHERN COOKS

Powerful Category 3/4 Cyclone Percy is threatening to make a direct hit on the two westernmost of the Northern Cook Islands, Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70). The centre of the storm is just to the west of Pukupuka as this report is being written.

APCEDI has contacted Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that all 600 residents on Pukapuka have been evacuated to the Pukapuka School. In Nassau all 70 residents have also been evacuated to the cyclone shelter. As of 8:00 AM local time in Cooks, winds on Pukapuka were sustained at 55 kt with gusts up to 75 kt. Already 3 houses in Pukapuka have sustained serious damage.

Should a direct or near direct hit of the storm's centre on Pukapuka and possibly Nassau occur, authorities should expect widespread moderate to severe property damage on both islands.

Percy continues to move east at 5-10 kt. It was forecast to make a southern turn last night, but this has still not materialised, and in fact the course last night was even more toward the east than yesterday's eastsoutheast movement. However, it has started to slow down, which could indicate a turn more toward the south shortly. The timing of the turn is now critical for the Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be on alert and immediately rush cyclone preparedness plans to completion if the storm continues east. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is currently moving east at 10 kt and is maintaining its current strength. It is about 25 miles west of Pukapuka. Percy is now a major Category 3/4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the to JTWC and NOAA will continue to maintain strength although the FMS is calling for some weakening.

Most forecasts and models continue to show a southerly turn imminently, which would take the storm toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 3/4 cyclone. So authorities in the Southern Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later in the day.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's have still be unsuccessful. The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. The Fiji Meteorological Service is now issuing gale and high wind warnings for Northern Cooks.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Dawn Alailima, the American Samoa Emergency Operations Commander, reports that all communications continue to be down with Swain's Island, and that all efforts to re-establish communication have failed. She confirms that there are 3 families on the island, but other reports state that the exact number of people range from 5-20. The delegate for Swains Island in the American Samoan legislature, Alex Jennings, who is based in Pago Pago has expressed grave concerns to EOC about the situation on Swains and has asked for a flyover, food drop and medical supplies drop. He says that the Swains have not had any supplies for 2-3 weeks and has been isolated since Olaf's passage 2 weeks ago. The EOC has asked FEMA and the Coast Guard for help, but has expressed interest in New Zealand officials to assist with a flyover if any planes are going to Tokelau. New Zealand/Tokelau and USA/American Samoan officials might consider a joint operation for dealing with Swain's Island.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TOKELAU
STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANU'A

SAMOA
ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED

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NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 27/1754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN COOKS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0 DEGREES SOUTH 166.8 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 271500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 40 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA BY 280000 UTC 0R 100 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281500 UTC .

FOR PUKAPUKA:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS 45 TO 55 KNOTS GUSTING 70 KNOTS. WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS, WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE 65 TO 75 KNOTS GUSTING 100 KNOTS, IF CYCLONE CONTINUES ON ITS
CURRENT EASTWARD TRACK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR SUWARROW:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE 30 TO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 DURING TONIGHT. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. SOME RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands will be issued at 272100 UTC or earlier.
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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org