APCEDI ALERT 10F #6, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY BEGINS TO BATTER TOKELAU

Cyclone Percy has been pounding Tokelau's westernmost Atafu Atoll (population 500-600). Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications in Nukunonu reports that the storm surge has been very bad especially on the western side of the atoll. The sea wall has been breached in some places and telecommunications went down this morning. Communication is being maintained by satellite phone. The latest report last hour said that although there was property damage from the storm surge, there were no injuries, and that everyone was safe and well. A community cyclone shelter had been established, but most people were riding out the storm in their homes which are largely cyclone-proof.

Mr Vitale noted that the sea around Nukunonu (population 400-450) was very rough and the storm surge was already building. Today's Parliamentary Session has been suspended early so people can get home as the Percy begins to bear down. The Wellington-based administrator of Tokelau, Neil Walter, is currently on the Nukunono Atoll for the session and he reported to Radio New Zealand that the islands are now prepared.

Cyclone Percy continues moving eastsoutheastward just to the southwest of Tokelau's three atolls: Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500) . The Fiji Meteorological Service is maintaining a Gale Warning for Atafu and Storm Warnings for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Percy is now a strong Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and according to the new JTWC and NOAA forecasts could strengthen into a Category 3/4 by the time it passes through Tokelau and Swains Island in 6-18 hours.

Percy is now 90 miles (145 km) westsouthwest of Atafu and 120 miles (195 km) west of Nukunonu moving eastsoutheast at 12 knots. Authorities on all 3 Tokelau Atolls, Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo should maintain cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone until the cyclone passes out of the area in 12-24 hours.

All atolls are now getting heavy squalls and major storm surge, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the afternoon and evening from west to east. On its current forecast course, Percy will pass 65-85 miles south of Atafu and 30-60 miles south of Nukunono and 45-65 miles southwest of Fakaofo. This course would spare all three atolls from a direct hit by the eyewall, but the forecast passage is still close enough to cause considerable damage to coastal areas from both wind and storm surge. Any minor deviation from this forecast course to the east or north could still lead to a direct hit for Nukunono and Fakaofo. Damaging gale-force and storm-force winds as well as strong storm surge will continue to effect the islands for the next 12-24 hours.

The American Samoan island of Swains Island (population 40) is next in line, and Hurricane Warnings have been raised there over night. Authorities there should rush to completion all cyclone preparedness measures in line with a Category 3/4 Cyclone. Authorities in the rest of Samoa and American Samoa have also raised advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Percy formed very rapidly, and more rapid intensification continues to be forecast in the next 12-24 hours as the storm moves across Tokelau and Swains Island after which it looks like it will pass between Niue and the Cooks similar to Olaf's path. So authorities in both Niue and Cooks should be ready to undertake preparedness activities at short notice.

All authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Cook Islands, Niue and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

TOKELAU
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

SAMOA
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SWAINS ISLAND
A STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

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TOKELAU ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHT for the Tokelau Islands ON TC PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 26/0221 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ATAFU.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3 DEGREES SOUTH 173.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES WEST OF NUKUNONU AT 260000 UTC. PERCY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

ON ITS FOREECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF ATAFU OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUNONU BY 260900 UTC AND ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAKAOFO OR ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF NUKUNONU AT 261500 UTC.

FOR NUKUNONO AND FAKAOFO :
EXPECT WINDS INCREASING DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ATAFU :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TOKELAU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260530 UTC OR EARLIER.
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AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 260200
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-260500-

HURRICANE PERCY LOCAL STATEMENT 04
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
3 PM SST FRI FEB 25 2005

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWAIN ISLAND

A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE WARNING AREA

A STORM WATCH MEANS STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY (950 MB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2 SOUTH 173.8 WEST OR 210NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SWAINS ISLAND OR 360 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 1 PM SST FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THIS TRACK AND MOVEMENT...TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL LOCATE NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 169.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SWAINS AT 7 PM SST SATURDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF SWAINS ISLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ALL RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA AND MANUA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF IMPACTS...
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT SWAINS ISLAND AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 30 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR SWAINS ISLAND.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR SWAINS ISLAND...
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 35 TO 50 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA...
EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SWAINS ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INCREASING THE LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM FRIDAY.

$$
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org