APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #20, 2005: CYCLONE OLAF GIVING SOUTHERN COOKS GLANCING BLOW

Cyclone Olaf continues to move west of the Southern Cooks. Olaf is situated about 215 miles (345 km) west of Rarotonga and is moving southeast at 15 kt. Olaf has peaked in intensity but continues as a major Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS MUST CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT AND MONITOR OLAF VERY CLOSELY

The forecast is for Olaf to continue southeast as a Category 3/4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale west of the Southern Cooks for the next 12 hours. After that, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf has the storm passing out into the Southern Ocean away from any inhabited islands.

However, the Southern Cooks should continue to be vigilant for a further 12 hours, as Gale Warning are in effect and even a modest deviation to this track eastward would increase the threat to the Southern Cooks While the forecasts are continuing to look encouraging, Olaf remains a strong and destructive storm and care should be taken until it leaves the area. The Cooks have already been directly hit by Cyclone Nancy and Cyclone Meena in the last two weeks, so coastal areas are particularly vulnerable. Since many businesses and homes are boarded up and taken preparedness for Cyclone Nancy, there is merit to leaving relevant preparedness measures in place for the next 12 hours until Olaf has moved well away into the Southern Ocean.

Warnings for the Southern Cooks as follows:

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TC OLAF
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 18/0448 UTC 2005 UTC.
CORRECTION TO LOCATION VECTOR WITH REF TO RAROTONGA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 163.5W OR 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 180300 UTC. POSITION FAIR. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 145 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 255 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 181500 UTC AND ABOUT 320 MILES OF RAROTONGA AT 190300 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS FROM LATER THIS EVENING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 180600 UTC or earlier.
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The following is a full and current list of Watches and Warnings that continue to cover a wide area of the South Pacific:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

NIUE
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL NIUE.

SAMOA:
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA DUE TO FRESH AND GUSTY WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL SAMOA.

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
A HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INFORCE FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TUVALU WATERS.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org