APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #15, 2005: SUPER CYCLONE OLAF BEARING DOWN ON AMERICAN SAMOA- NANCY EXITS FROM COOKS

Super-Cyclone Olaf is situated 95 miles (150 km) northeast of Apia, Samoa, moving largely east at 13 kt. Olaf is currently causing intermittent heavy squalls across much of Samoa and American Samoa at this time. The two main islands of Samoa, Savai'i and Upolu have had a most fortuitous escape due to the sudden eastern turn of Olaf this morning. Now American Samoa waits to see when Olaf will again turn to the southeast. Forecast models have Olaf moving north of Tutuila and its main city of Pago Pago, but starting to turn more southeast over or very near the Manu'a Group early tomorrow morning. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for American Samoa. Niue and the Cook Islands must now watch OIaf very carefully to see which direction it will take once it passes American Samoa.

Cyclone Nancy is now greatly weakened and is moving south away from the Cook Islands. Nancy caused widespread light to locally moderate property damage on Aitutake, Rarotonga, Mitiaro, Atiu, Mauke and Mangaia.

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering a record 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAVAI'I IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO STORM FORCE WARNING
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR UPOLU

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR TUTUILA, AUNUU AND MANUA
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----
SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf slowed down considerable last night as it was approaching Savai'i and then took a largely eastward turn. This adverted the storm from going directly over the two main islands of Savai'i and Upolu. It is now 100 miles (160 km) north of Pago Pago in American Samoa. Olaf is now a very large Category 5 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale capable of very severe damage to any island receiving a direct or near direct hit. Forecast models are calling for a turn more to southeast in the next 6-12 hours. The timing of this turn now becomes critical for American Samoa particularly for the Manu'a Group to the east of Tutuila. If the turn occurs in the next 4-6 hours it could bring the storm very close or over the Manu'a Group.

APCEDI has spoken with American Samoa Disaster authorities and they have outlined the following situation:

Situation on Tutuila (55,000 population): Over 70 shelters have been opened across the island and over 1000 people have been evacuated from low-lying coastal and flood-prone areas. The Governor declared an Emergency situation there earlier in the afternoon. The airport was shut down at 5:00 PM local time yesterday and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 72 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have largely boarded up, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of the storm.

Situation on the Manu'a Group (1,300 population): The Manu'a Group is composed of 3 islands; Tau (845 population); Ofu (230 population) and Olosega (230 population). On the main island of Tau most residents have been evacuated to the high school which is up in the hill away from the coast. On Ofu and Olosega, most residents have been evacuated to the main churches on the island.

Therefore in total over 2000 people have been evacuated in preparation for the storm.

After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa, and the Cooks and Niue must now be very vigilant.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY SEVEN (27) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 160730Z OR 8:30 P.M. 15th FEBRUARY 2005.


…… HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAVAI'I IS NOW DOWNGRADED TO STORM FORCE WARNING….

…….. HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR UPOLU……

OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8 SOUTH 170.9 WEST OR 79 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF APIA AND 82 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEIPATA AT 160600Z OR 7:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE WITH GUSTS OF 150 MPH AT TIMES.

IF OLAF CONTINUES ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE TO ABOUT 111 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF APIA AND 101 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEIPATA AT 161200Z OR 1:A.M.WEDNESDAY.

FOR SAMOA: FOR SAVAI'I: GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH GUSTING TO 60 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 6 TO12 HOURS.

FOR UPOLU: GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH, EXPECTED STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE OF 55 TO 70 MPH GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF UPOLU TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS TONIGHT.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SWELLS DEVELOPING. COASTAL STORM SURGE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 15-20 FEET AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 11:30 P.M.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 160800
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-161100-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
9 PM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.8 SOUTH 170.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 8 PM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF CONSISTED WINDS OF 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE CENTER WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH IN THE LAST 3 HOURS...AND IT WILL MAINTAIN THIS TRACK IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE HURRICANE OLAF WITHIN 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY AND NEAR MANUA 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND FEROCIOUS SURF OF 40 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80 TO 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD AFFECT TUTUILA TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 140 MILES OVER MANUA WEDNESDAY.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OLAF ARE CONTINUOUSLY MOVING OVER TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA TONIGHT....CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM WEDNESDAY.

____

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to weaken and is now a weak Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is now moving south away from the Cook Islands.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga this morning and can report the following:

There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.

Situation on Aitutake (2000 population): People have left shelters and returned home. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow. The east side of the island has borne the brunt of the storm with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Aitutake Lagoon Resort and Spa located just off shore on Akitua Island generally have serious damage from wind and tidal surge.

Situation on Rarotonga (12,000 population): The eastern side of the island has sustained the most damage so far with many trees blocking the main road, power down to much of the east side. At Matavera on the east side damage is bad with many homes damaged and the Cook Islands Church and the SDA Church have lost their rooves. Avarua has been relatively untouched this time. About 100 people were in shelters for much of the morning but have now gone home. Conditions still squally. Assessments will begin later today and tomorrow.

Situation on Mitiaro (230 population) Widespread low-level damage. 3 main houses destroyed. Trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Atiu (620 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mauke (470 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. Seas very rough. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mangaia (1000 population) Mangaia, the southernmost island is still be affected by squally winds and heavy rains this evening. Many trees down. Over 100 people were still in the 5 shelters this evening. Assessments and clean-up will likely start tomorrow.

Cyclone Nancy is now moving away from the Cooks. However, authorities in the Cooks must remain very vigilant to the threat of Cyclone Olaf which is now north of American Samoa. Once it passes through American Samoa, it will move toward the Southern Cooks and could approach in 24-48 hours. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a short period. This continues to have the potential to be a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 16/0607 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU,
MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 159.7W OR ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 100 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 160500 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 151 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161100UTC AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161700UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. HIGH SEAS ABATING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILLPOSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will
be issued at 160900 UTC or earlier.
____

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is just north of Samoa and heading southeast. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift to the west could bring Niue into target. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org