APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #14, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF CONTINUE BATTERING SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is continues to be situated north of Savai'i, the westernmost, major island of Samoa. It is currently causing intermittent heavy squalls across much of Samoa and American Samoa. Olaf has slowed considerably in the last 12 hours, and but it appears to be maintaining its overall southeastward movement. It will continue to track north of Savai'i and Upolu, Samoa's two main islands for the next 2-4 hours in the direction of Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa.

Cyclone Nancy has caused damage on Aitutake, Rarotonga, Mitiaro, Atiu, Mauke and Mangaia and continues to batter the southernmost islands of the Southern Cooks. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa. Niue and the Cook Islands must now watch OIaf very carefully to see which direction it will take once it passes American Samoa.

Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering a record 8 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU,MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TONGA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.
----

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf slowed down considerable last night as it was approaching Savai'i and has continued a slower motion this morning and afternoon, but seems to be picking up speed again this afternoon and moving east to southeast at 13 kt. It is now located about 170 miles (275 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 120 miles (195 kms) northwest of Apia, Samoa. Olaf's intensity models vary at this point, but overall it is forecast to maintain strength and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Cyclone in 6-12 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over America Samoa.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass just north of Apia and then near to or over Pago Pago as a Category 4/5 Cyclone later today or early tomorrow. The speed at which Olaf passes through the Samoa Groups will also be critical as any slow down in speed would result in increased rainfall that could cause significant flash flooding of rivers and creeks on the larger, mountainous islands of Savai'i, Upolu and Tutuila. Also north and northeast facing coasts of the larger islands will be highly vulnerable to major tidal surges over the next 4-10 hours.

All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should have finalised preparation activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. Niue may also get a glancing blow from the storm. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa and American Samoa, and the Cooks and Niue must now be very vigilant.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa worked all day yesterday to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings yesterday to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Government in Samoa has declared a State of Emergency. All airports in both countries shut down at 5:00 PM local time yesterday due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 48 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have largely boarded up, and everyone is awaiting the arrival of the storm.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY FIVE (25) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 160130Z OR 2:30 P.M. 15th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING IS REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA ….

OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12.3 SOUTH 172.6 WEST OR 68 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF AVAO AND 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 152300Z OR 12:00 P.M THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AND ITS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE WITH GUSTS OF 150 MPH AT TIMES.

IF OLAF CONTINUES ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK IT WILL RELOCATED AT ABOUT 28 MILES EAST OF AVAO AND 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 160300Z OR 4:P.M.

FOR SAMOA: FOR SAVAI'I: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH WILL AFFECTS MOST OF SAVAII AND HURRICANCE FORCE WINDS OF 70 TO 120 GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF SAVAII OR MOSTLY OF THE ITU O TANE IN THE NEXT SIX (6) TO 12 HOURS.

FOR UPOLU: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTING TO AFFECTS NORTHERN SIDE OF UPOLU FROM AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 70 TO 120 GUSTING UP TO 150 MPH AFFECTS THE WHOLE ISLAND FROM TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS IN THE EVENING.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SWELLS DEVELOPING AND COASTAL STORM SURGE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 15-20 FEET AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 152315
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-160200-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
3 PM SST TUE FEB 15 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.3 SOUTH 172.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 2 PM SST TUESDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WITH WINDS OF 140 MPH AND GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. IF HURRICANE OLAF MAINTAIN THIS TRACK WILL MOVE IT CLOSE TO TUTUILA TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 15 TO 25 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF 30 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS UP TO 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD AFFECT TUTUILA AND MANUA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HURRICANE OLAF MOVE CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER AMERICAN SAMOA TODAY...CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR. HURRICANE OLAF HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THAT WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM TUESDAY.
____

CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy continues to weaken and is now a weak Category 2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, the weakening trend is very slow, and Nancy is forecast to remain a Category 1/2 Cyclone as it exits from the Cooks. It is now moving southwest at 14 kt. It currently lies about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Rarotonga and 110 miles (170 km) west of Mangaia.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga this morning and can report the following:

There have been no reports of injuries or casualties.

Situation on Aitutake (2000 population): Cyclone is now moving away. People have left shelters and are returning home. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow. The east side of the island has borne the brunt of the storm with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Aitutake Lagoon Resort and Spa located just off shore on Akitua Island generally have serious damage from wind and tidal surge.

Situation on Rarotonga (12,000 population): The eastern side of the island has sustained the most damage so far with many trees blocking the main road, power down to much of the east side. At Matavera on the east side damage is bad with many homes damaged and the Cook Islands Church and the SDA Church have lost their rooves. Avarua has been relatively untouched this time. About 100 people were in shelters for much of the morning but are now starting to go home. Conditions still squally. Assessments will begin later today and tomorrow.

Situation on Mitiaro (230 population) Widespread low-level damage. 3 main houses destroyed. Trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Atiu (620 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mauke (470 population)Widespread low-level damage. 4 main houses destroyed. Over 80 large trees down and all roads blocked. Storm moving away. Seas very rough. People have left the shelter. Clean-up and Assessments are now starting and will continue into tomorrow.

Situation on Mangaia (1000 population) Mangaia is still be affected by high winds and heavy rains. Many trees down. Most people who live along the coast have gone to shelters or moved to inland houses. Assessments will likely start tomorrow.

Cyclone Nancy is now moving away from the Cooks. However, authorities in the Cooks should remain very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, in about 24-48 hours. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-72 hour period. This continues to have the potential to be a very dangerous situation for the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIFTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/2128 UTC 2005 UTC.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [970hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 158.9W OR ABOUT 57 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AND ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 152100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 90 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 83 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160900UTC AND ABOUT 121 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 136 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 161500UTC AND ABOUT.

FOR MANGAIA, RAROTONGA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 KNOTS, EASING LATER TODAY. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, EASING LATER TODAY. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED.

FOR AITUTAKI: SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. SOME SHOWERS EASING LATER TODAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL LIKELY.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 160000 UTC or earlier.
____

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is just north of Samoa and heading southeast. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift to the west could bring Niue into target. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org