APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #12, 2005: DUAL CYCLONES NANCY AND OLAF START DESTRUCTIVE TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COOKS, SAMOA AND AMERICAN SAMOA

Super-Cyclone Olaf is now beginning to impact on Savai'i, the westernmost, major island of Samoa. It will continue to track across the rest of Samoa and American Samoa throughout tomorrow. Cyclone Nancy has caused damage on Aitutake and is now affecting the island of Manuae, Takutea and Atiu in the Southern Cooks. This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Southern Cooks. Watches and warnings continue over a wide area of the South Pacific covering 7 countries as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL NORTHERN COOK WATERS.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.
THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

SAMOA:
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA

AMERICAN SAMOA:
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has weakened to a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale perhaps due to continuing interaction with more powerful Olaf to the northwest. However, the weakening trend is very slow, and Nancy is forecast to remain a strong Category 3 Cyclone. It is moving southsoutheast at 20 kt. It currently lies about 70 miles (110 km) eastsoutheast of Aitutaki and 90 miles (145 km) west of Mauke.

APCEDI has been in touch with the Cyclone Centres on Aitutake and Rarotonga and can report the following:

Situation on Aitutake: All preparations have been completed. Tourists have been evacuated from resorts, and many have been taken to Rarotonga. Some tourists have decided to ride out the cyclone on Aitutake. Radio announcements have been going out all day for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six Safety Houses (cyclone shelters) have now been opened, and over 100 of the islands 2000 residents have sought safety in these. The Cyclone Centre has all municipal workers on standby, ready to assist when storm hits. Conditions on the east side of the island have deteriorated rapidly in the last 2-3 hours with many trees down, major tidal surge, some roof damage. Winds on the east side are now sustained at 50-60 knots with gusts to 70-80 knots, and very heavy rain is being reported.

Situation on Rarotonga: All preparations have been completed. Radio announcements have been going out all day across the Southern Cooks for people to evacuate from low-lying and coastal areas. Six shelters are being opened, and people are continuing to come into the shelters. The Cyclone Centre is fully operational and monitoring the situation very closely. Winds are starting to gusts with intermittent rain squalls.

Nancy is now moving more southerly. Continuation of this southerly movement will likely bring the storm to about 60 miles (95 km) east of Rarotonga, which has already had significant damage from Cyclone Meena a few weeks ago. Manuae, Takutea and Atiu will also be very close to the centre of the storm. It is likely that the storm will continue as a strong Category 3 during this time.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks have now largely completed cyclone preparedness measures. Special attention should continue be paid to the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a another major cyclone, and there may be very little time between storms to recover or do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and very dangerous situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 15/1156 UTC 2005 UTC.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA, NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 158.6W OR ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AITUTAKI AND ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 151100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 152100UTC AND ABOUT 60 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 160600UTC.

FOR MANUAE, ATIU, MITIARO, MAUKE, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 95 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 135 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR AITUTAKI: EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED

FOR MANGAIA, RAROTONGA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 70 TO 85 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR PALMERSTON: WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued at 151500 UTC or earlier.

SUPER-CYCLONE OLAF
Super-Cyclone Olaf continues on its southeast track toward Samoa about 205 miles (330 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 145 miles (230 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. Olaf is moving eastsoutheast at 13 kt. Olaf is forecast to continue strengthening slightly and maintain a southeast track toward Samoa and American Samoa. It is now a very strong Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and is forecast to be a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone in 6-18 hours by the time it is predicted to move near or over Samoa and America Samoa later tomorrow. After Samoa, Olaf is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone.

At this forecast track and intensity, Olaf would pass very near or over Apia as a Category 4/5 Cyclone on Tuesday morning. All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be finalising all preparations activities consistent with a Category 4/5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. After striking Samoa and American Samoa, Olaf is currently forecast to move toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 4/5 Cyclone. This area will have already been affected by Cyclone Nancy plus the effects from Cyclone Meena earlier in the month. This is a critically dangerous situation for Samoa, American Samoa and the Cooks.

Authorities in Samoa and American Samoa have been working all day to rush preparedness operations to a finish. Both Governments and NDMOs have had a number of special meetings today to prepare for the oncoming situation. The Apia Airport shut down at 5:00 PM local time due to the approaching cyclone and all flights have been cancelled or rerouted. All schools have been closed as well as most public and private operations. Radio reports have been warning all residents for the past 24 hours, and most coastal businesses and homes have spent all day boarding up.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWENTY (20) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 151030Z OR 11:30 P.M TONIGHT. 14th FEBRUARY 2005.

…… HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF SAMOA ….

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS RELOCATED NEAR 12.2 SOUTH 174.3 WEST OR 125 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND 177 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA AT 150800Z OR 9:00 P.M THIS EVENING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 150 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

IF OLAF CONTINUES MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL RELOCATE ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND ABOUT 155 NAUTICAL MILES FROM APIA AT 151200Z OR 1:00 A.M TONIGHT. AT 160000Z OR 1:00 P.M TOMORROW AFTERNOON IT WILL ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF APIA. OLAF WAS MOVING AT 10 MPH IN THE LAST THREE HOURS AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE ITS SPEED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR SAMOA: GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SAVAII TONIGHT INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 90 TO 120 MPH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. GALE TO STORM WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH AFFECT UPOLU FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND HURRICANE WINDS TOMORROW.

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOWING RIVERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH VERY HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING LOW LYING NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.

THE PUBLIC ARE ALSO ADVISED OF FLOODS FROM HEAVY FALLS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

AMERICAN SAMOA ALERT FROM NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION

WTZS81 NSTU 151100
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-151400-

BULLETIN
...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF...LOCAL STATEMENT 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
12 AM SST TUE FEB 14 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF HEADING TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMERICAN SAMOA REMAINS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE IN FORCE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
HURRICANE OLAF REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 170 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED AT 12.0 SOUTH 174.3 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO AT 11 PM SST MONDAY. HURRICANE OLAF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...BUT SEEMED TO STALLED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR...IF OLAF MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT AND SPEED...IT WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO STAY TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OLAF.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS VERY DESTRUCTIVE SEAS OF 25 TO 40 FEET WILL GENERATE VERY DANGEROUS AND DAMAGING SURF OF UP TO 60 FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORES IS IMMINENT. ALL SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH WINDS REACHING 140 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLOOD INFORMATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY CAUSING WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND OVERFLOW OF STREAMS. LANDSLIDES WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY DOWNPOUR.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM TUESDAY.

NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it fairly far south of the main island groups, and with the current southeastward trend, Olaf is now moving away from the islands. Very rough seas will remain for some time.

TONGA
The Northern Islands Group of the Niuas could expect to feel the outer effects of Cyclone Olaf, once it passes through Samoa.

TUVALU and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction. Seas will be quite rough in much of this area.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the systems cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Both Cyclones are now major storms capable of very destructive damage to any area that receives a direct or near direct hit.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org