APCEDI ALERT 09F/08F #6, 2005: Dual Cyclones Nancy and Olaf Intensify; Cooks and Samoa in the Front Line

Dual Cyclones Olaf and Nancy continue to strengthen and pose a threat to a wide area of the Pacific. Watches and warnings have now been raised for the Cook Islands, Samoa, American Samoa. Niue, Tokelau and Tuvalu as follows:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR PUKAPUKA, NASSAU AND SUWARROW.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS

SAMOA:
GALE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

AMERICAN SAMOA: TUTUILA AND AUNUU:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY, GALE WATCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT

AMERICAN SAMOA:MANU'A:
HIGH SURF ADVISORY, GALE WATCH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING FOR ALL AREAS.

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CYCLONE NANCY
Cyclone Nancy has strengthened more rapidly over the last 6 hours and is now approaching Category 1 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is slowly moving to the southeast at 5 kt. It currently lies about 60 miles (100 km) southwest of Suwarrow, Northern Cooks and 160 miles (260 km) southsoutheast of PukaPuka, Northern Cooks and 485 miles (780 km) north of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Nancy.

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT
FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Southern Cooks ON TC NANCY
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0003 UTC 2005 UTC.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 164.0W OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 485 MILES NORTH OF PALMERSTON AT 132100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY IS INTENSIFYING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI AT 142100 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING HEAVY WITH FREQUENT SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING. MODERATE SEAS RISING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS LATER TOMORROW. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW
NIGHT IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TOMORROW, BECOMING HEAVY WITH SCATTERED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT.MODERATE SEAS RISING TO ROUGH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140300UTC.

All concerns in the Southern Cooks should be now be undertaking Cyclone Preparedness Measures in line for a Category 2/3 Cyclone. Measures should be completed by early tomorrow morning in Palmerston and early tomorrow afternoon in Aitutaki, Rarotonga and the other islands. Special attention should be taken along the coastal zone where much damage has already occurred from Cyclone Meena and seawalls and other protective structures may be damaged or undermined. Authorities in the Cooks should be very much aware that Cyclone Olaf is forecast to be following on the heels of Cyclone Nancy as a larger Category 2/3 storm, and there may be very little time between storms to do any repairs. Thus authorities should in fact be prepared for a quick double hit by both storms in a 24-48 hour period starting late Monday or Tuesday. This is an unusual and increasingly dangerous situation, but with the same careful planning shown during Cyclone Meena earlier this month, the Cooks can be ready.

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CYCLONE OLAF
Cyclone Olaf is between Tuvalu and Tokelau is about 550 miles (885 kms) northwest of Pago Pago, American Samoa or 460 miles (740 kms) northwest of Asau, Savai'i. It is slow moving and is forecast to strengthen. It is likewise approaching Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and could be a Category 2/3 in 24-48 hours by the time it is forecast to move near or over Samoa or America Samoa. After that it is forecast to head toward the Southern Cooks as a Category 2/3 Cyclone.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Olaf.

SAMOA ALERT
FROM SAMOA METEOROLOGY DIVISION

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER TWELVE (12) FOR SAMOA ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGY SERVICES AT 132300Z OR 12:00 P.M. 13th FEBRUARY 2005.

…..A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA………

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F WAS NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF AND LOCATED NEAR 9.4 SOUTH 178.0 WEST OR 400 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 131800Z OR 7:00 A.M THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND EXPECTING TO INCREASE TO 10 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF OLAF CONTINUE MOVING ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL LOCATE ABOUT 10.1 SOUTH 175.6WEST OR ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AT 141800Z OR 7:AM TOMORROW MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH NEAR THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 MPH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SUSTAIN WINDS OF ABOVE 35 MPH WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OR STRONGER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTS SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FREQUENT RAIN WITH VERY FALLS AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING TOMORROW

FORECAST TRACK:

AT 150600Z OR 7:00 PM TOMORROW EVENING ABOUT 11.9 SOUTH 173.7 WEST OR 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF ASAU AND 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF APIA.

AT 151800Z OR 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING 13.7 SOUTH 171.7 WEST OR 6 MILES NORTH OF APIA.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUE AT 6:00 P.M

All concerns and authorities in Samoa and American Samoa should now be readying preparations consistent with a Category 2/3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is still unclear exactly where Olaf will pass but almost all models have it passing somewhere near or over the main islands in Samoa and America Samoa. Olaf has the potential for more rapid growth and this should also be watched closely.
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NIUE
Authorities in Niue should monitor the situation closely. Cyclone Olaf is approaching from a direction similar to Cyclone Heta last year which devastated the island. It is currently forecasted to pass well to the northeast of Niue, but a slight shift could bring Niue into target. There is also a small potential for Cyclone Nancy to double back to the southwest and near the island although this is currently not expected. It is likely that watches and warnings will be upgraded for Niue in 24-36 hours.

TOKELAU
Authorities in Tokelau should monitor the situation closely. The forecast path of Olaf brings it underneath the main island groups, but should Olaf's southern turn come later than forecast, some of the southern groups could be directly affected.

TUVALU, FIJI and WALLIS AND FUTUNA
Authorities in Tuvalu, Fiji and Wallis and Futuna are seeing the cyclones moving away from their island groups, but should be vigilant in case of a significant reversal in direction.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
Depending on how the system cross through the Cook Islands, either could pose a potential threat to the Austral Group and other southern islands of French Polynesia in 48-72 hours.

Good satellite image for both systems together.

Although both storms are still small, there is significant potential for damage over a wide area for islands in their path, if they strengthen significantly over the next 24-48 hours.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org