APCEDI ALERT 07F #12, 2005: Cyclone Meena Preliminary Damage Information

The eye of Cyclone Meena is about 60 miles ( 97 kms) southwest of Mangaia. The storm is moving rapidly southeast at 20 knots and should be through the Cook Islands in the next 4-8 hours. APCEDI is now able to bring some general idea of the damage on Rarotonga and Aitutaki. The Cooks have been largely spared a major disaster by Cyclone Meena having failed to make a direct hit on any island, although there is a lot of debris and fairly widespread moderate to occasionally severe flooding-related damage from tidal surge along the immediate coastal belt of Rarotonga and Mangaia and to a lesser degree Aitutake. Other islands in Southern Cooks more to the east of the path of Cyclone Meena such as Atiu, Mauke, Manuae and Takutea are reporting superficial damage with some coastal flooding, but nothing significant at this time.

Situation on Rarotonga: Preliminary Information from the Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Strong storm surge experienced. The well-known Trader Jacks Restaurant on the wharf at Avarua largely destroyed and only shell of the building standing. Moderate damage to homes and businesses immediately on or near the shore from the eastern part of Avarua eastward along the east coast of the island. Government buildings on the east side such as the Ministry of Police and Health have damage from tidal surge. Many residences near the coast also have storm surge damage. No significant damage to airport. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. Power and phone service is still functional throughout most of the island with only isolated outages reported. Lots of damage to cooking sheds, trees and gardens especially in exposed coastal areas along the eastern coast. Damage considerably less inland away from the coast and the tidal surge. People still in Storm shelters, but will likely leave later this afternoon. Full damage assessments are now underway and will continue tomorrow.

Situation on Aitutake: Preliminary Information from the Aitutaki and Rarotonga Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. Large storm surge. 10 houses along the coast with serious roof damage. Some damage to trees, gardens and cooking sheds throughout atoll. Lots of debris along the coast and coastal roads. One large tourist boat has gone missing and it is unclear as to whether it has been washed into the lagoon or out to sea. Otherwise only superficial damage to houses and major buildings. Electricity and phone lines have been maintained except for a few isolated areas. The 4 families in Storm Shelters have gone home.

Situation on Mangaia: Preliminary Information from the Mangaia Hurricane Centre. No injuries. No casualties reported. As the storm intensified this morning, more families in the main village moved into Storm Shelters so the total is now about 230 of the islands roughly 670 inhabitants. The storm surge has been strong and is reported coming 100-150 metres inland. All assessment and repair teams have been brought to shelter until the storm is over, but before coming in reported that a large empty shed in the main village had collapsed. Assessments will be carried out later today if possible or tomorrow.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

The best visible satellite photo can be found at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service during daylight hours.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-EIGHT for Southern Cooks ON TC MEENA
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 06/2124 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON IS NOW CANCELLED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 158.8W OR ABOUT 79 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 49 MILES WEST OF MANGAIA AT 062100 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA IS WEAKENING. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 070000 UTC AND 135 MILES
SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA AT 070600 UTC. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 115 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 155 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMENAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 50 FEET OR 15 METRES.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, MANUAE, MITIARO, TAKUTEA, ATIU, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 30 FEET OR 9 METRES.

FOR PALMERSTON: FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS, TENDING SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FEW SHOWERS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070030UTC OR EARLIER.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/