APCEDI ALERT 07F #6, 2005:Strengthening Cyclone Meena Poses Serious Danger to Southern Cook Islands

Tropical Cyclone Meena continues to strengthen and is now a strong Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It will likely become a Category 2 Storm tomorrow at its forecast rate of strengthening. It has picked up some forward speed and is now moving southeast at 10 knots. It is forecast to continue slowly strengthening as it heads toward the Southern Cook Islands. Meena is currently about 120 miles south of the Northern Cook Island of Suwarrow. Suwarrow is a small atoll renown for its birdlife with a transient population of less than 10 persons. If any persons are currently on Suwarrow, they should maintain preparedness actions in line for a Category-1 Cyclone for the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Suwarrow Island and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands as outlined below. Advisories are continued for the Southern Cooks. On its current forecast track and rate of strengthening, the intensifying storm could pass near or over Palmerston Atoll, Rarotonga and other major islands of the Southern Cooks in 24-48 hours time as a major Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is now a very dangerous situation for Rarotonga, Palmerston Atoll and other the Southern Cook Islands. All interests in the Cook Islands especially the Southern Cooks should monitor local media about the storm and initiate preparedness activities immediately in line with a Category 3 Cyclone. All local disasters authorities should now be undertaking disaster preparedness plans in line with a major cyclone.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale indicates the following damage regime: Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

Interests in Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue and French Polynesia should likewise monitor the storm's progress and path in case of an unexpected shift in its direction.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map.

FOR COOK ISLANDS
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10120.txt

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0932 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 163.4W AT 050800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 75 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KNOTS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THE CYCLONE CENTRE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF SUWARROW AT 050600UTC AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.

FOR SUWARROW: NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS ABOUT NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051230UTC OR EARLIER.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/0809 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 163.7W AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. CDO TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND BANDS WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. AN EYE APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN RECENT IR IMAGES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDS DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT=FT=4.5, CI=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. EXPECT SYSTEM RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 17.0S 162.9W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 19.1S 161.8W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.6S 160.6W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 90 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.0S 159.3W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 95 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051430 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/